Rearguard

Now I too am part of Vilks art

2007-09-18T08:07:00.000-07:00

I like satirical cartoons, so in solidarity with Conservative Swede and Gates of Vienna I take a little moment to become part of Lars Vilks Mohammed the Dog caricatures "artwork", and for extra karma add Chris Muir's excellent Day By Day cartoon response :

Intense attack on Diwaniyah XV/07

2007-07-03T01:39:00.000-07:00

So the latest from Diwaniyah , its been comparatively quiet for a while but that (yet again) just changed in a hurry -

July 2 Blackanthem reports that

Insurgents targeted Camp Echo and the surrounding area with as many as 75 mortars and rockets in the early hours of July 2. Coalition Forces responded to the threat with an F-16 air strike on identified points of origin of the attack.

75? That is astounding. That is no longer hit and run. It doesn't happen in a minute or two unless there is a whole battery firing. In either case there is enough time and/or target to respond.

At around 2.00 a.m. Camp Echo and near-by residents of Diwaniyah City suffered a barrage of indiscriminate mortar fire and rocket attacks from insurgents operating in the Al Jumuri district. About 25 mortars and rockets struck within the perimeter of Camp Echo, injuring 3 Coalition Soldiers. The remaining 50 rounds impacted outside of the base in the surrounding neighborhood.

That implies that Echo is surrounded by civilian homes, which is not entirely true. The lack of collateral damage if missing Echo is one of the factors which allows the insurgents to fire at will.

Coalition Forces identified a number of launch points for this attack and directed two F16 aircraft to respond. The aircraft targeted and bombed the insurgent launch sites.

The bulk of the attacks were conducted from Salim Street, where insurgents persistently use urban areas from which to attack, in order to use civilians as human shields. Coalition Forces are reviewing the incident to ensure that appropriate and proportionate force was used in responding to the intense attack.

"Reviewing the incident"? They just had to finally respond to 75 shots inbound, but oh man, what did they actually bomb? The Latvians have left and there is no infantry to send or what?

Air strikes into urban terrain tend to be comparatively ineffectual and with massive collateral damage, making them rather counterproductive. Indescriminate US air strikes are considered one of the prime factors driving support for insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan. William Lind puts it best in his recent note The Perfect (Sine) Wave:

To put it bluntly, there is no surer or faster way to lose in 4GW than by calling in airstrikes. It is a disaster on every level. Physically, it inevitably kills far more civilians than enemies, enraging the population against us and driving them into the arms of our opponents. Mentally, it tells the insurgents we are cowards who only dare fight them from 20,000 feet in the air. Morally, it turns us into Goliath, a monster every real man has to fight.

Reuters reports local hospital sources that 10 civilians including children and 30 wounded (Iraqslogger makes that 13 and 30). Needless to say, that ain't going to make no friends. In the weakly linked cause-and-effect state that is the arab mind the 75 mortar bombs may well be considered as retribution for the bombing.

Unsurprisingly, Iraqslogger reports that the locals are hopping mad, that tensions are high and could break out at any moment. Figure to see more and bigger payback coming up for Echo.

Diwaniyah coverage drawdown.

2007-07-03T01:06:00.000-07:00

Since the Latvian Infantry company has withdrawn from that unhappy den of mortar targets, Camp Echo at Diwaniyah, mine own small news roundup from Diwaniyah is more or less drawing to a close.

Apologies to the regular readers, for I see that a small group of folks presumably with relatives in Diwaniyah and/or Echo, have made this blog a daily stop. The Fort Myer's News Press even quoted The Rearguard in a story,

Here’s one of the entries she reads on a blog she checks every day. “June 13-14: During the night Camp Echo in Diwaniyah is hit four times by rockets and/or mortars, and Camp Delta in Al Kut twice. The Mahdi army is busy these days. Four times in one night, that’s a new low in hostility. We are real close to the “Hourly attack on Diwaniyah” here.”

Irritatingly, the jackals failed to attribute or link.

However I will keep an eye on Diwaniyah for the moment, since it appears to have gone hot again.

Latvian infantry withdraws from Iraq

2007-07-03T00:42:00.000-07:00

On June 19th Latvia has finally withdrawn the infantry from Iraq as promised by the MoD, for which there is much rejoicing.

4 years
1150 soldiers
3 killed
$40 million

For my opinion the last two are terribly expensive. The whole of the Iraq is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.

Iraqslogger actually posted an article. So much for even handed coverage of the coalition of the willing, this the first and only one so much as mentioning Latvian participation in the coalition entitled "Latvian Troops Head Home : Baltic State Ends MNF Deployment".

However, Latvia has not withdrawn from OIF entirely, just the infantry (TVNet).

Daily attack on Diwaniyah XIV/07

2007-06-14T08:31:00.000-07:00

The spiral keeps going down, with no end in sight :

June 13-14 During the night Camp Echo in Diwaniyah is hit four times by rockets and/or mortars, and Camp Delta in Al Kut twice (Lv MoD)

The Mahdi army is busy these days. Four times in one night, thats a new low in hostility. We are real close to the "Hourly attack on Diwaniyah" here.

Weekly Daily attack on Diwaniyah XII/07

2007-06-12T08:39:00.000-07:00

The weekly attack is back.

Diwaniyah itself has been moderately hot, but most of the damage has come from Iraqi police and army fighting the Mahdi Army militia. General Othman and the 8th Iraqi Division appear to have their act together, and most remarkably are getting the previously useless police to pull some load. Their efforts have apparently kept Camp Echo unmortared for a couple weeks, until last Friday night when the post sermon hate arrived :

June 3 Iraqi army kills 4 suspected insurgents and loses one of the own near Diwaniyah (Blackanthem)
June 4 Clases between the Sadrists and US forces wound four in Diwaniyah (Reuters)
June 6 Fighting between Iraqi army and Mahdi Army leaves three dead (Iraqslogger)
June 9 Camp Echo is mortared in the evening (Lv MoD), but see below and following
June 10 Another US serviceman, Airman 1st Class Barnes, is kiled by IED attack on a convoy in/near Diwaniyah (Plain Dealer), while F-16s provide top cover for ground forces that has taken mortar fire near Diwaniyah (Air Force Link)
June 11-12 Camp Echo takes rocket fire during the night(Lv MoD)

According to the Alalam Iranian satellite TV news site on 9 June "Tens wounded in Diwaniyah clashes between Mahdi Army and a joint US-Dutch force" (Alalam). Joint US-Dutch force? Sounds like BS to me, because the Dutch have long since ended their mission in Iraq. So much for Iranian ~~propaganda~~ news , 'cause the Alalam site is publishing blatant crap despite their slogan being "Winning the Trust of Audience". Losers.

However, speaking of "media" and "losers" our own western MSM has completely missed the significance of Iraqi troops taking up the fight in Diwaniyah. But be reassured, they do a sterling job of reporting US casualties among other reverses in the Diwaniyah area.

Update

Did I mention the ~~weekly~~ daily attack on Camp Echo was back?

Perhaps because of the June 12 Askariya shrine bombing things down Diwaniyah way have gone completely pear shaped again overnight.

June 12 Camp Echo rocketed about 2200 (Lv MoD)
June 13 Camp Echo rocketed about 0400 (Lv MoD)

No attacks on Diwaniyah XI/07

2007-06-01T23:57:00.000-07:00

I can find no reports of Echo being mortared, rocketed or shot in the last two weeks. Thats a big change. Trouble still brewing all around of course :

May 16 Fighting in Diwaniyah, 8 civilians wounded, one soldier and one policemam (Reuters)
May 17 Three civilians killed and four wounded in clashes between militia and security forces (Iraqslogger)
May 18 Three Iraqi security forces from a army-police "emergency contingent" wounded by "gunmen" (Iraqslogger)
May 19 Latvian Defence Minister Atis Slakteris visits our troops in Diwaniyah(Delfi)
May 20 Another IED attack near Diwaniyah. One US soldier killed, two wounded (BBC)
May 25 Three offduty Iraqi soldier killed in Diwaniyah (Reuters)
May 30 IED kills two and wounds two police (Telegraph)

On the one hand its now summer and just too damn hot for casual insurgents, but on the other hand the Iraqi security forces appear to have got their act together, which is a quite remarkable development. I opined it would take a fresh elite Iraqi brigade to secure the place after the US surge left, and from the reports above it appears that some kind of Iraqi force ("emergency contingent") has been put into place, and so far getting the job done. The mainstream media of course completely fails to report this, happily reporting casualties and fighting while refusing to them in any perspective.

Good news is no news, right CNN/Reuters/AP?

In other news which the MSM does report : There are reports in the Arab press that the Americans are threatening by helicopter dropped pamphlets to build a base in the center of Diwaniyah (Iraqslogger), though that whole story sounds pretty damn unlikely. It is now widely reported that opium poppies ares being grown ino the fields around Diwaniyah (The Independent among others). Iraqslogger gleefully reports that "Shi'a Rivalries Succeed Where Al-Qa'ida Fails", which gives some idea of the can of worms we opened by invading Iraq. The WaPo explains that "Iraq's Sadr Overhauls His Tactics".

Last word today to one of the neocons (that is to say one of the idiots who got us into this mess) Frederick Kagan: in this article he mentions Diwaniyah and has met the local Iraqi army commander :

On a recent trip to Iraq, I saw the human stakes in this struggle. I spoke with the commander of the 8th Iraqi Army Division in Diwaniyah, Major General Othman. He is a Shia, commanding a heavily Shia unit in an entirely Shia area. I asked him what was the most serious challenge he faced. He answered at once: Shia militias. General Othman stands strongly for an Iraq ruled by law, in which the government holds a monopoly on the use of force, and in which Sunni and Shia are treated equally. He has put his beliefs to the test of battle. When he saw that members of Moktada al-Sadr's Shia militia, the Mahdi Army, had taken control of the city of Diwaniyah, he conducted a large-scale clearing operation with the help of American forces and drove them out. General Othman now holds Diwaniyah, where the people can breathe free again, subject neither to that militia nor to any other. There is no turning back for General Othman. The Mahdi Army is determined to kill him and his family, and they will do so if we do not continue to support him. The life of this decent man is in our hands.

Good luck General Othman, you gonna need it.

Weekly attack on Diwaniyah X/07

2007-05-14T08:48:00.000-07:00

Diwaniyah was back to something approaching normal.

4 May Iraqslogger :

A curfew was imposed on Diwaniya city on Friday night after fierce clashes between gunmen and a joint force of Iraqi and U.S. troops killing an Iraqi soldier and wounding three others, a security source said.

Order is imposed with heavy hand and voila! A Friday night curfew means no Friday night hate. So they switch to Monday.

6 May Rockets are fired at Camp Echo in the morning, no details and presumably no serious damage. (Lv MoD)

Still, that's only one attack reported in like a whole week. Pretty cool, except that the Cavalry apparently left Diwaniyah by 8 May (Blackanthem, Stars and Stripes). Were they replaced? It is not clear, but if not, then we would expect trouble to ratchet up again presto.

9 May Iraqslogger :

Unknown gunmen on Wednesday shot and killed a police officer outside his house in northern Diwaniya city, 180 km south of Baghdad, a police source said.

10 May : US Army Private first class Roy Jones of 984th Military Police Company/759th Military Police Battalion is severely wounded by small arms fire around 5 pm in Diwaniyah, he is evacuated but dies of his wounds later. Jones is 21 and came from Houston, joined the Army in March 2006 and was sent to Iraq six months later. (US DoD , Colorado Springs Gazette , Blackanthem (1), (2))

11 May Iraqslogger:

An Iraqi army soldier was killed and six policemen wounded when two explosive devices went off near two army and police patrols in Diwaniya, 180 km south of Baghdad, on Thursday night, a security source said

12 May Iraqslogger:

Unknown gunmen on Saturday shot dead a police officer in Diwaniya, 180 km south of Baghdad, a security source said.

13 May Iraqslogger

Iraqi forces detained on Sunday afternoon a leading figure from Sadr movement along with four of his brothers in the Shiite city of Diwaniya, 180 km south of Baghdad, a police source said.

13 May In the evening a Latvian patrol is fired on, no details, presumably no serious damage(Lv MoD)

Damn. At least from this armchair that sure looks like trouble ratcheting up again. Thus so much for Black Eagle, maybe because as Mr. Lind says : sweeps don't work.

Heh, at least Iraqslogger has started posting the news for weekends. It only remains for Jordan Eason's minions to spell "Diwaniyah" properly and find some sources for attribution.

Lastly, if anyone is interested, Global Terrorism Analysis (published by the Jamestown Foundation) has posted "Shiite Power Struggle Unfolds in Diwaniya" on the background of the ongoing violence in Diwaniyah.

Weekly attack on Diwaniyah IX/07

2007-05-03T04:01:00.000-07:00

Diwaniyah seems pretty quiet, so chalk up Black Eagle as a win (for the moment). Summer is coming and Iraq heating up, 40°C daytime temperatures already.

24 April Four rockets fired at Camp Echo (Iraqslogger quoting "a security source")
30 April Several rockets fired at Camp Echo, no serious damage (Lv MoD).
02 May Explosives attack on US vehicle in Diwaniayh. Vehicle damaged, no casualties reported. (Iraqslogger quoting "a police source")

Considering Eason Jordan's risible track record, Iraqslogger is rather informative, but I have serious reservations about it. There is much material but serious omissions (which is, on second thought, very much in character).

Iraqslogger only works workdays -the oh so characteristic Friday/Saturday post Friday sabbath sermon hate goes unmentioned.
The "coalition" coverage appears to be nigh exclusively of the Brits (or withdrawals). Although the rest of the Coalition of the Willing is laughably small numerically (and dwindling), it is rather important politically, and for that reason alone demands at least token coverage.
Thirdly, it is real weak on naming sources to the point of universal anonymity, hence cannot be trusted (i.e. "slogger sources report that...."). For instance, the reports on attacks on Echo in Diwaniyah match pretty poorly with the reports carefully placed on the Lv MoD homepage.

So anything written without proper sourcing in Iraqslogger must be taken with a grain of salt. Unfortunately, that appears to be most of it.

Weekly attack on Diwaniyah VIII/07

2007-04-22T05:07:00.000-07:00

April 20 Rocket attack on Echo base (Iraqslogger), thats Friday so think post sermon hate.
April 21 Reports of Polish convoy 30 km from Diwaniyah hit by IED, one Polish solider killed and three wounded.

That second news is grievous, but the indirect fire attacks inDiwaniyah proper have finally tailed off. MNF(I) reveals two reasons why indirect fire attacks on Echo are down post Black Eagle - the US 1-14 Cav Regiment. First, they patrol likely firing sites (a basic tactic MND(CS) has not carried out in many months since they apparently lost control of Diwaniyah city last summer). Second, a US mortar subunit has set up shop at Camp Echo to deliver counter battery fire, illum and HE missions. Counter battery is critical, because any Muj delivering fire to Echo is likely to be in a hurry before the return fire drops in his lap . Furthermore, since patrols are looking for him the in the likely times and places, he will be nervious setting up, unlike in the recent past when he had time to take coffee and a smoke between shots. Why on earth it took nearly a year and US forces to conduct such fairly basic self defence measures is a question that should be put closely to MND(CS) past and current Polish leadership, but the chances of General Lamla and predecessors being put to the question are probably sadly remote.

How big has the indirect fire threat been before the US took charge? Compare these two photo series from MND(CS) PIO :

Salvadorean change of contingent 16 February - soft hats and bdus for all.

Lithuanian and Ukrainian soldiers recieve medals 20 April, helmets and full armor for the Polish , Ukrainians and Salvadoreans. Only the Lithuanians make light of danger and forgoe the armor.

Daily Weekly attack on Diwaniyah VII/07

2007-04-17T11:57:00.000-07:00

Happy news at last, after last weeks daily hate there have been a mere two attacks in the last week (the Lv MoD homepage is not responding so no details). Of course two attacks in one week would have been big news last year.

Furthermore, according to this article, after being al-Sadr's bitch and personal static mortar range for about six months, MND(CS) will finally change policy and be more proactive. Disturbingly, Iraqslogger reports that Black Eagle only occurred after local tribes demanded action. Of course, the current relative calm is helped greatly by the fact that there are regular US troops (stryker/cavalry) still in the streets of Diwaniyah (pictured below by Reuters dodgy stringer Imad al-Khozai). With any luck they will remain there a while, or at least until summer when we are due to withdraw.

Update : details available

April 12 when several rockets were fired towards the base in the evening with no serious damage (Latvian MoD)
April 17 Camp Echo (aka Echo base, aka FOB Echo) came under mortar attack (Iraqslogger)

Wire services and news in Diwaniyah

2007-04-10T03:27:00.000-07:00

Now Reuters is clueless, we knew that, but I begin to wonder if the MSM isn't deliberately excising coverage of the Coalition of the Willing (among other sins). Case in point : Operation Black Eagle in Diwaniyah. The first photo has had plenty of exposure on internet news stories, the second is pretty much unseen. Perhaps the composition is worse. Maybe the intended US audiences aren't too interested in foreigners anyway. But maybe left leaning media outlets want to minimise the Coalition of the Willing? Try to find examples of coalition soldiers doing much of anything in Iraq in the MSM, there is very very little except for fatalities which the MSM reports with alacrity. Now compare these two photos [1] [2] :

A U.S. military convoy drives through Diwaniyah, 130 kilometers (80 miles) south of Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, April 6, 2007. Iraqi forces backed by American soldiers swept into a troubled, predominantly Shiite city south of Baghdad before dawn Friday, and the U.S. military said as many as six militia fighters had been killed. (AP Photo/Jalal Mudhar)

AP via Yahoo! News - Apr 06 11:09 AM

A soldier from the multi-national forces stands guard while U.S. armoured vehicles patrol a street in Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad, April 6, 2007. Iraqi and U.S. troops on Friday moved into the southern city of Diwaniya, a stronghold of Shi'ite militia loyal to anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, in an operation to curb the militia's increasing influence. REUTERS/Imad al-Khozai (IRAQ)

Reuters via Yahoo! News - Apr 06 10:50 AM

That slippery Diwaniyah shifts 50km depending on which wire service you believe. I guess it depends how you measure it, maybe one is road miles and the other crow miles.

The multinational soldier is Latvian, again the unique Latvian digital desert cam, and see the flag on the sleeve pocket. A closer view would reveal "LATVIA" written above the flag. Photographer "Imad" obviously has trouble with reading and/or geography since he was the one who photographed the "Bolivian" soldier in Diwaniyah the following day.

Those two photographs were either taken seconds apart by one camera, or more or less simultaneously from two places. They are from two different wire services, with supposedly two different photographers, and both spell "Diwaniya-/-h" differently. So two local stringers were standing shoulder to shoulder like good friends shooting away? Unless .... nah, couldn't possibly be that the wire services are being taken for a ride?

Are there any more examples? How about these photos [1] [2]?

An Iraqi soldier patrols the deserted streets in Diwaniyah, 130 kilometers (80 miles) south of Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, April 9, 2007. American troops continued operations in Diwaniyah on Monday, detaining four guards at the office of a Shiite political party and scouring two neighborhoods in the city's northern and eastern sections, police said. At least 24 suspects were detained and one civilian was killed, police said. U.S. officials had no immediate comment. (AP Photo/Jalal Mudhar)

AP via Yahoo! News - Apr 09 8:57 AM

An Iraqi soldier searches for snipers in a street in Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad, April 7, 2007. U.S. forces launched an air strike in the volatile Iraqi city of Diwaniya on Saturday amid sporadic gunbattles between Shi'ite militiamen and U.S. and Iraqi forces seeking to return the city to government control. (Imad al-Khozai/Reuters)

Reuters via Yahoo! News - Apr 07 3:33 PM

But that appears to be the same guy, in an similar pose, in stories filed two days apart. Look at the face, arms bands, silver watch, webbing, the position and pattern of the cam on the vest relative to the webbing is identical. That is the same guy. He is "patrolling" in the first and "searching for snipers" in the second, doing neither very convincingly. Weird huh? Either its a remarkable coincidence or it is staged and/or mislabelled and mis-dated.

Maybe Imad and Jalal are buddies, they travel together and photograph stuff. Or do they just stage together, and inaccurately mislabel the photos as required to fit the moment and the wire services bite? Or does Jalal, who seems to travel (he has photos from many different cities in Iraq) borrow unattributed (staged) shots from his buddy Imad in Diwaniyah?

Hard to say. I'm sure there's a reasonable explanation, but IMHO its just more symptoms of the disease that infects AP and Reuters (and the MSM in general). Pathetic fact checking, reliance on unaccountable crooked stringers, embedded political bias. News that's skewed even if nothing is faked.

Daily attack on Diwaniyah VI/07 and Operation Black Eagle

2007-04-10T00:53:00.000-07:00

An operation to finally clean up Diwaniyah began on April 6th - Operation Black Eagle. Notably it appears MND(CS) is not leading, but the main work is being done by US forces - though it is claimed to be lead by the Iraqi 8th division with US and multinational support*.

Iraqslogger has a number of articles, Diwaniyah is under curfew since April 6th, the US has used air strikes, and the enemy claims to have smoked 3 HMWVVs, at least one American has been killed, and about 60 or so from the Mahdi army, IED factories have been uncovered, including for EFPs.

And how does this affect our beloved Camp Echo?

31 March During the evening Camp Echo takes unspecified incoming fire (Lv MoD)
02 April Camp Echo is mortared at 0430 in the morning (Lv MoD)
06 April Camp Echo is rocketed at about 2200.
07 April Camp Echo is mortared around 1700 (daylight!).
08 April Camp Echo is rocketed around 1300 (daylight!).
09 April Camp Echo is quiet (Easter roundup summary at Lv MoD).

The 6th was Friday, so figure the usual post-sermon evening hate, but daylight indirect attacks are rather unusual. At a guess, unable to effectively target the moving operation, the Sadrists vented at the big static target just outside town.

Will Black Eagle help to ease the attacks on Camp Echo?

Short term while the operation rolls and heavy outside security remains probably so.

Long term (>month) I have doubts. There were similar operations just six months ago (October). The locals have to take charge again sooner or later, and up to now they've been good Sadrists. The local police were useless and unable to maintain control, and will continue to be so. The Iraqis would need to import a crack police brigade or so from elsewhere to significantly change that (and Diwaniyah is not that important in the big picture). Killing off some 100 Sadrist militia in a city of 500 000, where 10% or more may be potential militia fighters changes little. The supply of weapons likewise is unchanged (though with any luck key IED makers/cells have been nailed, and that would make the whole operation worthwhile). I fear the net effect, with bodies and city center airstrikes, may just be buckets of bad will from the remaining locals.

None of this changes Camp Echo's inability to act as more than a static mortar range target, or MND(CS) inability to conduct meaningful operations.

* If there exist any photographs showing any MND(CS) soldiers outside the wire excepting the Latvians, well, I cannot find them on the english language internet. If any visitors do see any please leave a comment and a link.

Micro-ReutersGate in Diwaniyah

2007-04-09T02:58:00.000-07:00

The trouble in Diwaniyah has finally come to a head, with forces being diverted from elsewhere to clean the militias out. But more about that elsewhere.

Reuters has bungled a photo caption, in itself a quite trivial event, but IMHO illustrative of Reuters poor quality. Reuters stringers are apparently covering the operation, and Reuters shows this picture and captions it "A soldier from Bolivia patrols a street in Diwaniya".

A soldier from Bolivia patrols a street in Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad, April 7, 2007. U.S. forces launched an air strike in Diwaniya on Saturday as U.S. and Iraqi troops seeking to return the volatile Iraqi city to government control fought sporadic gun battles with Shi'ite militiamen.
REUTERS/IMAD AL-KHOZAI

Reuters problems with suspect stringers and negligent basic fact checking has been noted previously ("Reutergate"). Here is another example, though this may be news to Reuters :

- there are no Bolivian soldiers in Diwaniyah, mainly because
- there are no Bolivian soldiers in Iraq, mainly because
- Bolivia is not currently taking part in Operation Iraqi Freedom, mainly because
- Bolivia has never taken part in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

There are soldiers from El Salvador in Diwaniyah, part of MND(CS). Bolivia, Costa Rica whatever, I mean what's the difference, right? Course, some of us instincitively realize that the pseudo-narcostate pseudo-marxist Morales lead Bolivia is entirely unlikely to deploy to Iraq, but Reuters highly paid editors obviously needed to do some googling. Unless they think that a Bolivian born soldier serving in (for example) the US army, justifies a tagline like that. But the soldier is 100% most assuredly not from Bolivia in any way.

The soldier is Latvian, although Latvian participation in the Coalition of the Willing may also be news to Reuters. That a pale north european looking guy is patrolling in Diwaniyah may have been a clue, but the key diagnostic features are the unique Latvian large pixelled digitial desert camoflague and the custom H&K G36 (Compare the Reuters foto with these at Lv MoD).

Good morning Reuters. Try buying a clue.

Weekly Daily attack on Diwaniyah V/07

2007-03-26T06:31:00.000-07:00

March madness continues unabated in Diwaniyah. First up, late news on the usual post Friday sermon Islamic rage attacks

March 23 Camp Echo is hit during the evening by several mortar bombs (Lv MoD)

March 24 Shots directed towards Camp Echo during the evening (Lv MoD)

DIWANIYA - The bullet-riddled body of a military intelligence officer was found in the centre of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. (Reuters),

but elsewhere in the former MND(CS) area :

Hilla- At least eleven civilians were killed and 45 were wounded on Saturday afternoon when a car bomb detonated near a Shiite mosque in north of Hilla, 100 km south of Baghdad, a police source said.(Iraqslogger)

March 25 Nothing reported from Diwaniyah but :

Hilla- Fierce clashes erupted on Sunday morning between armed groups and citizens mourning the victims of a suicide bombing at a (Shiite) mosque that killed 11 and wounded 45 on Saturday north of Hilla. (Iraqslogger)

March 26

DIWANIYA - The body of a man was found with gunshot wounds, bound and bearing signs of torture on Sunday in the southern city of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. (Reuters)

And its only Monday.

Update:

March 27 Several rockets are fired towards Camp Echo during th evening at about 20:20.
(Lv MoD)

DIWANIYA - Six bodies were found in different parts of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. The victims had been tortured, bound and shot. (Reuters)

March 28 Several rockets are fited towards Camp Echo in the evening.
(Lv MoD)

The Latvian MoD provides few details on events in their posts other than noting that the Latvian contingent is unharmed.

While on the subject of details, I understand the reports of bodies with "signs of torture" mean real horror like the liberal use of power drills on the victim. Dreadfull stuff.

Last to Know

2007-03-21T06:10:00.000-07:00

MND(CS) has posted the foto on their own website .

Now, given the flurry of police on gunman madness during the last week in Diwaniyah, MND(CS) commander Lamla has seen fit to comment on the hopeless state of the local police

The Age :

Polish general rates Iraqi police poorly

The commander of Polish forces in Iraq says Iraqi police are performing poorly in his sector and were collaborating with Shi'ite militiamen.

Like, no s**t Sherlock.

Major General Pawel Lamla, the commander of multinational forces based in Diwaniyah, 130 kilometres south of Baghdad, also accused the police of not taking firm action against Sunni insurgents in his area.

"Iraqi police do not do their duties as they should do because of some of their elements have connections with the militias with whom they collaborate," Lamla told Iraqi reporters.

He said the recent security deterioration was due "to police incompetence as well as the presence of the political parties who do not intervene to stop violence."

Lamla also confirmed that insurgents attack the multinational base in Diwaniyah on a daily basis but said his forces cannot return fire because the attacks come from residential areas. "We do not want to hurt residents," he said.

Doh! This problem is old, they seem to have lost control of central Diwaniyah last year. I would like to hear General Llama explain why is a military base is maintained a easy mortar/rocket attack from a insurgent save haven? Or if the base is immovable, why is the no-go area permitted? And what exactly does MND(CS) actually do in Diwaniyah anyway, since they have handed over responsiblity for the district to local forces last year?

Underscoring the threat, police said gunmen attacked an American patrol in Diwaniyah and two civilians were wounded in clashes.

Police, which police? The militia supporting ones? Who were the gunmen, maybe they were police?

In spite of his criticism to Iraqi police, Lamla praised the Iraqi army's 8th Division which is in charge of Kut and Diwaniyah.

"This division is the best formation in the Iraqi army, it is well-equipped and has the best commander and officers and are doing excellent job in a very wide and sprawling area ," he said.

"Excellent job" ... excellent? The excellent job does not include preventing nightly attacks on Camp Echo or constant IED attacks in the district. Nor is it so excellent that MND(CS) can claim "mission accomplished" and leave.

Shia militias battle openly corrupted cops in broad daylight

I am not impressed.

Weekly flurry of attacks on Diwaniyah IV/07

2007-03-21T05:41:00.000-07:00

March 16 March Camp Echo took incoming fire on the evening (Lv MoD)

March 18 Reuters reports that

The body of a man, shot dead and tortured, was found on Saturday in the southern city of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

March 19 Fighting in Diwaniyah, reportedly between US forces and elements of the Mahdi Army, no word of casualties (IHT), while the body of a police captain is found in the city, and "gunmen" kill the head of the local passport office. (Reuters)

March 20 MND (CS) commander General Pawel Lamla criticises the local police (1)

March 20-21 During the night Camp Echo is fired apon, again (Lv MoD).

March 21 All manner of (preumably) Badrist/Sadrist trouble in Diwaniyah again, and the day ain't over yet (Reuters).

DIWANIYA - The bodies of two police commandos were found with gunshot wounds in the southern city of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

DIWANIYA - A policeman was killed and eight wounded, including four civilians, when clashes erupted between police and gunmen on Tuesday in several districts of Diwaniya, 180 km (110 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

DIWANIYA - Police said they found the body of a man, shot in the head and bound, on Tuesday in Diwaniya.

Updated

March 21 Camp Echo again under fire during the 21st, time and type of attack unknown, nothing of import hit (Lv MoD)

Weekly attack on Diwaniyah III/07

2007-03-13T07:48:00.000-07:00

At 1740 on March 12 a Latvian patrol from Diwaniyah was involved in some manner of action. Details are murky. The wording at the MoD website implies an ambush/ contact, though it may be an IED. No place is mentioned either. One of ours lightly wounded (shrapnel in the arm).

Update 1

At about 1825 on March 13th several rockets were fired at Camp Echo (Latvian MoD).

Weekly attack on Diwaniyah II/07

2007-03-05T10:37:00.000-08:00

The weekly attack on Camp Echo in Diwaniyah. I have lost count.

The Latvian MoD reports more fire directed against Camp Echo on 03 March. Type unreported, damage nil.

MND(CS) reports only on their successfull EOD unit from Bosnia-Hercegovina, which is kind of trippy following the decade of peacekeeping there (which has not yet wrappd up).

Latvian soldiers may leave Iraq this summer

2007-02-27T00:48:00.000-08:00

Latvian portal DELFI reports that the Latvian National Security Council has decided to effectively withdraw the Latvian infantry company from Iraq this July, as the company that rotates out will not be replaced. Latvia will not leave Iraq entirely, there will still be a staff contingent of some 15 officers.

The drawdown in Iraw will allow increasing the contingent to Afghanistan to some 100 men.

Apparently General Petraeus was in Camp Echo yesterday :

At the end of the patrol, General Petraeus praised General Othoman's leadership and the Soldiers of the 8th Iraqi Army, stating that they are, "shining examples of the new professional Iraqi Army whose combat readiness and disciple are to be noted as another example of an ever-growing professional Army and example for the future."

Aha.

Weekly mortar attack on Diwaniyah, redux 2007

2007-02-20T03:52:00.000-08:00

Camp Echo has been subject to a mortar attack on February 13 and direct fire on February 16. No serious harm done, though one hopes the miscreants in the second incident ate some lead from return fire.

Update : There appears to have been another direct fire attack on the camp on the night of February 22-23.(timing uncertain, the Lv MoD post is rather ambiguous). No damage done.

Hmmm, two consecutive attacks on Thursday/Friday night, prior the Muslim holiday.

Heads up next Thursday evening, on the night March 1-2. Normal people would have a couple drinks down the pub before their day off. Bloody Muslims.

Update: March 1- 2 passed without incident. I love being wrong sometimes.

MND (CS) Commemorative Medal

2007-02-20T03:33:00.000-08:00

Consul-At-Arms asked for details of the MND-CS 90 day award. This is the "Multinational Division Central-South Commemorative Medal" (Medal pamiatkowy Wielonarodowej Dywizji Centrum-Poludnie), and is a non-official commemorative decoration.

Instituted in the fall of 2003, by the Commander of the Multinational Division Central-South in Iraq. It is awarded to all servicemen and women, as well as to civilians serving with the Division, irrespective of nationality, who have completed 90 days of service in the operational zone. First medals were awarded in January 2004.[link]

Latvian infantry KIA in Iraq

2006-12-27T09:51:00.000-08:00

Our famous luck has run out. Latvian soldiers have successfully dodged a long, long series of IED attacks.

At 1255 on 27 December 2006 an armoured HMWVV of the Latvian infantry company in Iraq has been struck by an IED while returning from a patrol at Al Husa (?) near Diwaniyah. 2 soldiers - Lcpl Vitālijs Vasiļjevs un Lcpl Gints Bleija have been killed, and three more soldiers wounded. Two are lightly wounded, the third more seriously and now in hospital in Baghdad awaiting evac home. The guys were "short" - the patrol was a hand over tour for the new rotatio

The mission to Iraq is to continue through 2007. Some lesser politicians have began to talk about fleeing, but the leadership has already stated it will not affect the mission.

(compiled from the MoD homepage, LNT news, DELFI portal)

Hot downrange III : attacks around Diwaniyah continue

2006-08-02T06:45:00.000-07:00

29 July Al Reuters -

DIWANIYA - Seven police were wounded in a joint U.S. and Iraqi raid against members of the Mehdi Army, a powerful militia loyal to Shi'ite firebrand Moqtada al-Sadr. The incident took place in the town of Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said.

02 August Al Reuters -

A roadside bomb exploded near an Iraqi army patrol, wounding two soldiers in Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad.

Gunmen killed an employee of a human rights group outside his home in Diwaniya, police said.

No indirect fire reported for the last few days, one hopes this indicates the new rotation is taking some action against the Sadrists around Diwaniyah.

Update : Last night there was the sudden surge of hits from Slovakian web adresses searching for "camp echo mortar" indicating something had happened, and lo!.

03 August Camp Echo was under fire in the early morning and late evening. Latvian contingent unharmed (MoD Latvia)

No more details given, MND(CS) website silent, the enemy reports do not mention the action.

Is there any additional information in Slovakian sources? If so feedback is kindly invited.

Hot downrange II : attacks around Diwaniyah continue

2006-07-28T12:39:00.000-07:00

Trouble around Diwaniyah continues, fortunately the Latvian contingent remains undamaged but the Salvadoreans are taking a beating .....

25 July 3 Iraqis killed and five wounded in a shootout between US forces and Sadrists in Diwaniyah, after the arrest of a Sadrist. (Monsters and Critics from Deutsche Presse-Agentur)
26 July Unknown firefight near Diwaniyah, US close air support from F-16s used (CENTAF airpower summary)
26-27 July Nightly rocket attack on Camp Echo, misses the base (MoD Latvia)
27 July IED attack 4km from Diwaniyah on a KBR convoy returning from Al Kut, about 630pm. The vehicle hit was a marked ambulance, two Salvadoreans wounded (1 fatally).(MND CS, Bloomberg)

Thats the second Salvadorean escorted convoy hit on the run to Al Kut, the previous - also with a fatality - on 19 July.

What the hell is going on down there? I had the impression that the Polish division was losing control of Diwaniyah back in June, but judging by the news its way worse now.....

Hot downrange : surge of attacks on Diwaniyah

2006-07-25T02:43:00.000-07:00

After a apparent pause at the start of July, the weekly insurgent indirect fire attacks on Camp Echo have restarted. And also ambushes, IEDs and shootouts - daily.

17 July Several shots were fired towards the base in the evening but fell short. (MoD Latvia)
19 July IED attack on Salvadoreans en route to Al Kut, 2 heavily wounded (1 of hose fatally) (MND CS)
20 July 4 rockets fired towards the base at 0130 local time, all fell short (MND CS). The enemy propaganda claims :

In a dispatch posted at 2:45pm Makkah time Friday afternoon, Mafkarat al-Islam reported that Iraqi Resistance forces fired four Katyusha rockets into "Camp Eko" of the Polish occupation troops located 5km south of ad-Diwaniyah – which is 120km southeast of Baghdad late on Thursday night.

The ad-Diwaniyah correspondent for Mafkarat al-Islam reported a source in the as-Salam neighborhood puppet police as saying that the attack set a massive fire burning in the northern part of the Polish base, compelling the occupation troops, who had tried on their own for an hour to extinguish the blaze, to seek the help of Iraqi firefighters to put out the flames.

The puppet police source said that the Resistance barrage had inflicted casualties among the Poles and their Asian mercenary workers.

The number of rockets and the target coincides as usual, but the muj wildly exaggerates the results, also as usual. "Asian mercenary workers" meaning KBR contractors presumably, and will the savages ever learn to learn to spell "Echo"?
21 July Ambush on MND(CS) near An Numaniyah in Wasit province convoy wounds 6 soldiers and translator, 10 insurgents captured (MND CS)
23-24 July Latvian contingent was on QRF and was involved in some shootout near Diwaniyah on night from the 23-24th July, no-one hurt and no details available (MoD Latvia)
24-25 July two Katjusha type rockets were fired at the base on the night of July 24-25th but exploded short of the base. (MoD Latvia)

Why the upsurge of unpleasantness? At a guess it looks to be a complex of several factors

It just happens that the MND(CS) Polish contingent, including divisional command, changed on July 18th, and Contingent change is a favorite time for local provocations in any mission.
The situation was none too secure before that.
Iraqi forces near Diwaniyah on July 16th arrested a local sheikh "suspected of directing local terrorist-run death squads". A local sheikh bust is usually a guarantee of tribal trouble (vengeance for loss of face etc etc).
Its mid-summer, mid 40s centigrade and too damn hot to sleep until past midnight.
IDF action against Hezbollah / Lebanon is probably stirring the Arab's pot, and Iran is a supporter of the terrs in both Lebanon and Iraq.

Latvia vs PC / liberalists / gays

2006-07-24T10:52:00.000-07:00

The event has passed, and the deviants amusingly received a drubbing at the hands of a bunch of louts, but there are several disturbing aspects :

1. The Latvian main daily newspaper Diena has become a full on marxist mouthpiece on this topic. Failure to grant group rights to sexual deviants is front page headlines like "Failure of Democracy", and the paper has devoted full pages daily to reeducating the ignorant Latvian populace. The satirist produced a imbecilic cartoon with hordes of primitives (presumably) armed with spears leaping out of the trees to ambush a march labelled "pride". Diena has also taken onto itself the burden of reeducating Latvians about racism. Shame, Diena, shame.

2. The gay pride event started with defrocked (for unrepentant sodomy) Lutheran priest Maris Sants together with the usual suspects placing wreaths - at the Salaspils memorial assemblage. For those not in the know - Salaspils is a holocaust memorial on the site of the infamous nazi Salaspils concentration camp. Of course the news media was there, but they failed to comment on the pretentious incongruity of it.

3. The "main event" as per above was a service at Rigas only Anglican church. The slide of the various Anglican churches into amoral liberalism is well documented by Auster's VFR site.

4. The US embassy almost came out in support, the European Parliament did.

5. All manner of western liberal types crawled into the country to lend their support to "democracy" and decried our backwardness. At last count 75% of the electorate were opposed to group rights for sexual deviates, and 25% in favor of outlawing it. You give Palestinians the vote you get Hamas, give Latvians the vote and you get traditions, restraint and morality.

Democracy is government of the people, for the people, by the people. Democracy won in Latvia this week. The politicians and police heeded the opinions of the populace, instead of scurrying to curry favor with foreigners and the media. Sadly, some of our most prominent media, and some of our elite, seems to think democracy is imposing their will and social program on the "unenlightened" populace.

Why is a republican appointed US ambassador pushing gay rights / political correctness?

2006-07-18T07:31:00.000-07:00

From the Baltic Times :

Interior minister meets with Christian leaders, US ambassador about gay pride parade

Jul 18, 2006
By TBT staff
Latvian Interior Minister Dzintars Jaundzeikars met separately with US ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey and Russian Orthodox priest Nikolajs Tihonirovs on July 17 to discuss the gay pride parade planned for Riga on July 22.

“[The parade] would be a mockery of feelings of all Orthodox believers,” Tihonirovs said after the meeting. “The event should not be allowed to take place at all as it offends morals of Latvia's population and every Christian. It is a challenge and provocation against our religions.”

Jaundzeikars himself voiced concern for parade marchers as many have threatened to block the march. "The police do not have so many men. What are we supposed to do -- use the weapons perhaps?"

"The police do its best but everything has its limits,” the minister said. "If I was the organizer and had to make the decision, I would definitely not hold the event. If the intention was to speak about tolerance, the result is just the opposite now.”

Bailey voiced concern for security at the parade and said that the US supported democracy, human rights and tolerance in Latvia. She said the embassy planned to participate in several events related to the gay festival, Riga Pride 2006, she said.

Polymorphous perversity is one of the cultural marxist planks intended to destroy traditional society. The hard left has consistently pushed for the rights of "sexual minorities" (ie. deviates and perverts of every stamp) in every country of the west. Sadly, the number of western countries which enshrine family rights over the rights of "sexual minorities" can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Hapily, for the moment anyway, Latvia is one of them.

Interior Minister Jaundžeikars has done the right thing by advising the Riga city council not to issue a parade permit.

So why the US ambassador? One would expect this kind of bullshit from the EU, or a Democratic Clinonista appointee, but this one is Republican (Catherine Todd Bailey is a Republican senate approved Bush appointment). Why is a Republican appointed US ambassador openly participating in the cultural marxist/politiclly correct agenda issue of gay rights? Is it official US government policy to push cultural marxism on the entire planet under the catchphrase of "human rights"? Is "tolerance" US foreign policy? How does democracy depend on celebrating sexual deviancy?

To any traditionalist/conservative US readers : please consider to take 5 minutes to e-mail your congressmen/senators/GOP organizers, and express your sincere dismay: Why the US ambassador to Latvia supporting anti-Christian latent marxism, in the name of the US of A?

Latvia rotates infantry company in Iraq II

2006-07-06T12:04:00.000-07:00

Another mission completed. Latvian OIF contingent Team 7 - the now very experienced 2nd Infantry Company/2nd Infantry Battalion - has finished their tour and is en route home from Iraq.

They were busy. The Latvian portal TVNET reports that the company carried out 754 tasks in 6 months - patrols, escorts and other operational tasks outside the wire. While the Polish division was lavish with their praise, the soldiers rotating out were not as complimentary. One officer described working with the Polish a worse problem than the 50 degree heat or regular rocket attacks.

The Latvian Minister of Defence was in Iraq for the awards ceremony at Diwaniyah. He met with the Iraqi Defence Minister, and he reportedly stated repeatedly that "We will be here, as long as it takes".

Situation in Diwaniyah and the 16th June firefight

2006-06-30T04:23:00.000-07:00

Latvian HMWVV armed with .50 cal - Iraq, October 2005

There is a lengthy article about the Latvians in Iraq published in the Latvian daily newspaper Diena and the web portal DELFI, including an interview with Captain Vents Lapsenbergs, veteran commander of the Latvian company in Iraq (2nd Infantry Company / 2nd Infantry battalion). The following two fragments summarize the interesting parts of the article :

Losing Diwaniyah
Lapsenbergs assesses the situation in Diwaniyah to have deteriorated lately, partly attributable to inaction by the Polish leadership. An area of Diwaniyah has become an unofficial no-go area for the coalition, and a support base for local insurgents who have repeatedly attacked Camp Echo. The Iraqi army and police appear uninterested to control the situation, and on occasion have refused to go on joint patrols in Diwaniyah. Lapsenbergs :

The local inhabitants are happy that we don't go in there. Now we are hated in Diwaniyah, seen as occupants, and this attitude has been fostered by local leaders.
- Captain V.Lapsenbergs
Diena 30.06.06

Firefight in the night of 16th June 2006.
After dark on the evening of June 16th, the 2nd platoon was on patrol mounted in HMWVVs was ordered into the "red zone", from which rockets had just been fired at Camp Echo. The platoon stopped at several Iraqi police posts who indicated the direction of the launcher. It is possible that the local police deliberately directed the Latvians into an trap which may have included more than 100 insurgents, who attacked with grenade launcher and small arm fire from the rooftops. The platoon returned fire (expending over 70% of their ammunition load) and drove out at high speed. One soldier was hit but protected by his body armor.

So, well done our brave lads, and again Latvian soldiers lead a charmed life. The June 16th attack appears to have been some manner of ambush, from which the Latvians had to shoot their way out..

Part of this is confirmed by the MND(CS), who recently held a press conference, where they stated that :

...recently the security environment in the area became unstable fueled by the anti-coalition rhetoric used by some provincial authorities.

Now Diwaniyah is a Shiite city, and that all (insurgents+police+leadership) points to a Shiite problem. I can find no reliable source, but there is this intriguing hint on pro-Muslim academic Juan Cole's website :

Monday, June 26, 2006 Fresh fighting broke out in Diwaniyah. Clashes took place in al-`Asri district, gunmen clashed with police commandos. (Just speculation, but this is probably actually a fight between Mahdi Army irregulars and Badr Corps who were recruited into the police commandos by the SCIRI-dominated Interior Ministry).

There are a number of disturbing conclusions. The Iraqi police here appear to have - at minimum - turned a blind eye to insurgent schemes, if not actually collaborating with them, or playing the coalition off against them. The local leadership is playing against coalition interests. And - unbelievably - it seems the Polish lead MND(CS) has let insurgents set up a safe area in a major city. A safe area in firing proximity to Camp Echo. An area from which Camp Echo gets hit damn near every week, and then the response is to send in Latvian troops .... unsupported.

Which all leads to two reasonable hypotheses :

The insurgents are involved are local Shiite militia - and the indirect fire attacks on Camp Echo are merely the weekly hate mail and presumably far from the most the insurgents could do if they really wanted.
The local police (possibly Badrists) may have deliberately sent coalition troops into a clash with their Shiite factional rivals (Sadrists = Mahdi army), who in turn were (fortunately) not really prepared for a clash with coalition soldiers.

And now, a siege begins

2006-06-26T12:21:00.000-07:00

The popular Latvian web portal DELFI reports that Amnesty International has turned a round of criticism against Latvia for failing to pass the anti-gay discrimination law on June 21st. Notably, they don't bother with an reasoned argument, but demand implementation of the 2000/78/EK EU directive, and warn of EU sanctions. As if its their business to do so.

Maybe it shouldn't be surprising that an organisation founded by a socialist lawyer (Peter Benenson) is now deliberately pushing legislation enshrining cultural marxism. Amnesty was more worthy in the Cold War past, but now appears to being finally going completely off the rails (to the left, and then down, down, down into the deep chasm where Marx still lurks). As Wretchard writes, AI cannot bring themselves issue a statement to condemn the torture, mutilation and murder of US soldiers by terrorists, but can vigorously demand that homosexuals become a protected subclass, to the point of issuing warnings to a sovereign nation in the name of an international union of which they are not a part.

The Catholic World News reports that

Representatives from the International Lesbian and Gay Association (ILGA) are demanding that the EU reassess Latvia's membership and said it hoped that the European Commission would take legal action to ensure the law was implemented in full.

Latvia is on the correct track, making such enemies. The Brussels Journal has covered this circus, and says it well

The Latvian parliamentarians insisted on the right of private employers to turn down people whose moral behaviour they reject.

A victory for freedom - freedom of association over PC priveledges for a "protected class". Bravo again.

Weekly rocket attack on Diwaniyah, yet again.

2006-06-25T09:09:00.000-07:00

This is getting a little too regular, MND(CS) reports that :

On 21th June 2006 at 23hrs Camp Echo in Diwaniyah was the target of unsuccessful rockets attack. Three rockets were launched in camp direction. Two of them explodes outside the base and the last exploded nearby the firing position.
No damages and injuries were reported.

As far as can be ascertained that's the fifth attempted indirect fire attack on Camp Echo in the last month (23rd and 31st May, then 5th, 16th and now 21st June). Does the Polish division have a handle on whats going down in Diwaniyah???

Latvian parliament resists cultural marxism

2006-06-21T09:33:00.000-07:00

The Latvian Parliament (Saeima) has passed amendments to the Labor Law, but removed those lines that banned discrimination on grounds of sexual orientation.Which is in defiance of EU directives, and should be cause for celebration, but EU and PM and President have come out with criticism. PM Kalvitis :

Such intolerance as was seen in the parliament on Thursday had not been observed in Latvia so far.

So failure to pass cultural marxist "anti-discrimination" laws is intolerance, Kalvitis? Been boning up on the new marxism apparently.

The President, who previously hesitated to pass an amendment to the consitution that enshrines the primacy of the traditional family, has refused to sign the new law and returned it to the Saeima for reconsideration.

This issue brings out an unholy alliance between politically influential western Latvians (pro-Europe pro-US but horrifyingly liberal) and Russians. The Russian parties are anti-Eu, anti-US, but very leftist and in favour of every kind of anti-discrimination - against the wishes of their Russian speaking electorate. The marxism just shines through.

One can only hope the elected members hold to their guns and refuse to inject any more PC into the law. Remember this, elected memebers - its an election year, amd the Latvian voters recognize and reject crypto-communism when they see it. Do the will of the people or judgement will be forthcoming.

Weekly mortar attack and ambush on Diwaniyah, yet again.

2006-06-20T11:02:00.000-07:00

The Latvian MoD website reports that on the night from 16th to 17th June several shots (mortars again?) were fired at the base in Diwaniyah (Camp Echo). The QRF was Latvian (from 2nd infantry company/2nd infantry battalion) and was sent to the possible firing location to track down the miscreants. They came under small arms and grenade attacks - presumably either security for the mortar or ambushes. None of the soldiers seriously hurt, one somewhat deafened by a nearby grenade blast. Terrorist casualties unknown, hopefully sufficient to ruin their day.

The MND(CS) homepage again fails to list this news, instead preferring to waffle about some irrelevant Polish air cavalry day in bad english.

The New Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse - Islam, PC, Liberalism and Narcissm

2006-06-15T08:55:00.000-07:00

Fjordman has written a excellent essay Political Correctness — The Revenge of Marxism on the Gates of Vienna, which does a really great job of popularizing William Lind's important work on the history of PC as cultural Marxism, and expanding on this and on a point repeatedly discussed at Gates of Vienna and elsewhere - that Islamism is merely an opportunistic infection of a diseased body politic.

However, Islam and political correctness/cultural Marxism is in turn part of a wider sickness in Western society. There are at least four layers to the disease :

Islamism
Political correctness (aka PC aka Cultural Marxism)
Liberalism
modernity induced Narcissm

As well as a number of enabling/aggravating factors

the Mass media
Globalisation / collusionsal selfinterested corporations
collusionsal liberal elitist Governments

There is another layer of illness underlying PC, the illness that permits PC to flourish - the whole liberal anti-traditional anti-Christian mindset of the West. Fjordman has touched on this in the past, as has Brussels Journal's Paul Belien, but I notice commentators here and on LGF have mentioned other writers - Shelby Steele, Robert Spencer, Mark Steyn. Lawrence Auster on his excellent website , with impeccable logic and direct thinking at length demonstrates that even the aforementioned conservative writers have internalized liberal assumptions, and are in the end accordingly stumbling blindly.

The same can be said of Jyllandposten editor Flemming Rose (of Mohammed cartoon fame). Rose explains in Europe's Politics of Victimology that

Europe today finds itself trapped in a posture of moral relativism that is undermining its liberal values. An unholy three-cornered alliance between Middle East dictators, radical imams who live in Europe, and Europe's traditional left wing is enabling a politics of victimology.

So far so good, and most of the article is in the same vein. However he goes on to conclude :

What to do? Obviously, we can never return to the comfortable monocultures of old. A demographic revolution is changing the face, and look, of Europe. In an age of mass migration and the Internet, cheap air fares and cell phones everywhere, cultural pluralism is an irreversible fact, like it or not.

Irreversible ? Flemming has assumed a priori some of the liberal disease that he is writing against. He writes against the PC consciousness trap, in turn only to reveal inadvertently he is trapped in it himself.

But what of the roots of pathologic liberalism in western society? Shrinkwrapped has a reasonable explanation of the developmental roots in individual psychology that details why individuals in the modern western world are predisposed to narcisstic personality disorders, and how this translates into collective liberalism.

The main stream media? Like a mosquito carrying malaria, this is the vector that transmits PC to the vulnerable population. A population without a liberal bias would shrug off the nonsense - this is happening even today in Eastern Europe. The people there have been exposed to real Marxism, and seen hard times, and consequently have some measure of natural resistance to PC propaganda. I suspectthe MSMs predisposition to PC is also based in narcissm, but only more so than the rest of the population

However, the assault is unrelenting. In Latvia, a country awash with criminal problems, last week a man of African descent was assaulted by skinheads. No serious damage done - not even hospitalization However
the western infatuated media in Latvia has been absolutely awash with discussions/diatribes on the evil of Racism - first page news in the major papers! One assault with no harm and the media goes AWOL - ignoring very real and pressing problems of 2.3 million people to castigate the rest of the populace on their responsibilities to the 200 or so Africans in Latvia, and bemoaing the desperate lack of active anti-racism awareness in the country. Fortunatley the people are hardened by 50 years of real communism, are rightly suspicious and are not biting ... at least yet.

And the last? Collusion from unlikely sources - capatalists and liberalism infected governments. The elite of the corporate world have much to gain and little to lose from globalizatio. Perversly, the open borders and free movement of people is beloved of multiculturalism (one of PC's ugly stepchildren). The unholy alliance between corporate globalizationalists, cultural marxists (who may even campaign against globalization the rest of the time) and government shows up occasionaly, but the latest, most blatant and horrifying example of this phenomenon in the US is again shown by Lawrence Auster in the Nation Crusher .

Zarqawi wasted, now to dispose of him entirely ...

2006-06-08T08:23:00.000-07:00

Zarqawi has finally been caught and terminated, squashed like a roach by a couple of 500 pounders. A half assed (literally) martyrdom at best for Zarqawi, no guns blazing glorious fighting end for him then (dying while fumbling with the safety on the SAW). Now remains the important process of demeaning and demystifying like was done with Saddam and sons. A nice corpse portrait in some dingy morgue etc.

Of course, I still maintain that his mortal remains should be fed to the pigs, or at least buried wrapped in pigskin with a can of cheap SPAM in his mouth and wearing American tennis shoes. At minimum, cremate the bastard - the Geneva Conventions provide no protection for the remains of terrorists. That should give wannabe true believers some pause. Theres no virgins for Zarqawi, but it should be done that they should "know" it too.

Will aceing Zarq the smalltown tryhard help in the long run? I'm not so sure, Zarqawi's radicalism went a long way to splitting the insurgency, discrediting al Quaida and alienating moderate insurgents.

Weekly mortar rocket attack on Diwaniyah, yet again.

2006-06-07T08:27:00.000-07:00

The Latvian MoD webapge reports that

Naktī no 5. uz 6. jūniju militārās bāzes Divānijā virzienā tikai raidīti vairāki šāvieni, no kuriem divi uzsprāga bāzes teritorijā. Latvijas kontingenta karavīru vidū cietušo un ievainoto nav.

Which is to say that on the night from 5th to 6th June several shots were fired in the direction of Camp Echo in Diwaniyah, of which two exploded inside the base. No casualties.

Update

The MND(CS)homepage states that :

2006-06-05 08:20
Terrorist attack on Camp ECHO

On 5th May 2006 about 22.20 hrs at night, rocket attack took place on Camp ECHO. There were three rocket (3) explosions outside Camp ECHO and two (2) explosions inside the base. No casualties were reported.

Weekly mortar attack on Diwaniyah, again.

2006-06-01T11:54:00.000-07:00

MND(CS) announces that :

Mortar attack on Camp Echo
At night 31May 2006 mortar attack took place on Camp Echo. There were 4 mortar grenades lunched in Camp Echo direction. All of them exploded in distance of 700 – 1200 meters from the Camp. The possible location of the place where mortars were launched was identified very fast. The ZU-23-3 crew from east side of Camp opened fire to this direction.
There were no injured personnel reported. During this attack joint patrol of Mn Grp and 8th IADiv conducted mission outside Camp Echo. Additionally 5 Iraqi Police patrols were sent to that location but did not confirm any suspected activities on that area.

Obviously the terr aren't real good with the mortar. A simple weapon, but not simple to use well, and not hugely effective in unskilled hands.

Weekly mortar attack on Diwaniyah

2006-05-23T08:33:00.000-07:00

Another mortar attack on the Latvian contingent base at Diwaniyah, no casualties.

Its getting warmer there, daytime temperatures in the shade are already reaching 40°C. June/July and 50°C temperatures coming right up.

2006-05-22T09:13:00.000-07:00

I've been noticed by the press affairs people from CENTCOM, who sent a pleasant e-mail requesting that I link to their website, and inviting me to use any material from the site. They appear to "get it".

Done, linked at the sidebar.

Gramscian narcissism

2006-05-19T05:38:00.000-07:00

Shrinkwrapped gives a psychological explanation of the emasculation of western society after WWII, that helps explain the ability of the cancerous Gramscian meme of political correctness to penetrate the west so deeply so quickly.

Its also rather important in that political correctness is not a virulent disease in its own right, but an opportunistic infection that could only have grown in the west, in this era. No other society would have given political correctness the time or nutrients to grow and blossom, it would never even take root. Never before has such a dangerous vector (mass media) existed, that allowed it to spread quite so fast

However, the situation is unstable. Gramscian narcissism is self-negating. The key question is whether this self destruction will occur within the host, or like a cancer by killing the whole host.

Historically, technologically and culturally advanced civilizations have fallen again and again to primitive but more vigorous barbarians. Was the process something not unlike this? Except that effeminacy took centuries to finish Rome. Thanks to the PC infection, we may be seeing that process on fast forward right now.

I ruminated on this earlier, but if Shrinkwrapped is right the rot runs deeper than the media. Susan Sarandon and co are just the warped image in the mirror, reflecting the rotten side of western culture.

The Belmont Club: Who will bell the cat?

2006-05-09T12:43:00.000-07:00

Wretchard has also noticed the essential smoke and mirrors behind the empty calls for "someone to do something" about Darfur. The numbers being discussed (10000????) are, as I have said, laughably small for effective peacekeeping in Darfur - about an order of magnitude so.

Of course a UN peace force may well use the new UN SOP from Liberia : no sex = no food. In the case of UN deployment the population will be decimated by AIDS anyway. The modern UN - a lose/lose proposition.

Latvian troops in Iraq dodge yet another IED

2006-05-09T12:14:00.000-07:00

From the Latvian MoD webpage (my translation) :

On the morning of 4th may, as the Latvian company's second platoon was conducting a patrol near Diwaniyah, an IED was detonated on the right side of the road. No casualties were incurred.

The 2nd infantry coy/2nd infantry battalion dodges yet another IED blast without serious harm.

Again, the MoD release went completely unnoticed by the media. In this case thats probably positive, a sign of phlegmatic maturity - omnipresent danger and close calls to the troops no longer count as news.

Army genocide prevention unit?

2006-05-08T07:27:00.000-07:00

Darfur and more stupidity again. The surprising thing is the source this time. Michael O'Hanlon writes in the Washington Times op ed column Army genocide prevention unit? :

We should create a genocide prevention division in the U.S. Army -- a Peace Corps with guns

A what?

Soldiers in the new genocide prevention division would not need to execute complex operations akin to those carried out during the invasion of Iraq or current operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. They would largely monitor villages and refugee camps, inspect individuals to make sure they did not have illicit weapons, and call for help if they ever came under concerted attack. Their jobs could be somewhat dangerous, and would require discipline and reasonable knowledge of some basic infantry skills -- but they would not be extremely complex.

The METL is limited to monitor, inspect and call for help. Thats certainly in line with time tested standard UN practice in Lebanon, Croatia, Bosnia and Rwanda. Apparently, coming under unconcerted attack (like IEDs or occasional ambushes) is simple. So no great skill is required to wait for air support while pinned down in an ambush deep in the African bush at night? Apparently having American flags will immediately make up for total lack of fighting capability, and thereby deter the Janjaweed from disrespecting them. Of course, on the rest of planet earth outside the UN office building, it is sincerely believed that any such force, being neither equipped, trained or prepared for combat, would be abused by anybody with the slightest interest in doing so. Little children will point, laugh and throw stones, as they always have at the impotent UN peacekeepers.

From there it gets worse :

They would begin their service with roughly 12 weeks of boot camp and 12 weeks of specialized training -- and then go to Darfur next winter.

Mhmmm. 6 months of training. None of that expensive and time consuming unit collective training seems in order. As observed, the units being US, they are apparently assumed priori not to need actual combat training. That would be OK of course if the tasks are only simple as outlined earlier, but :

....such American main combat forces would probably not have to be larger than company-size formations -- 200 to 300 troops each. Assuming several such companies would be deployed, perhaps 1,000 American soldiers and Marines from existing units would be needed countrywide, to back up the 5,000 to 10,000 new enlistees in the dedicated genocide prevention force.

Aside from "company formations of 200-300" (and thats three contradictory elements in one phrase) being "main combat forces", even if the magic US flag somehow allows them to avoid combat/prevail in combat, how would those 5000 quickly trained ~~meat shields~~ genocide preventers prevent genocide across all Darfur where the 10000 African Union peacekeepers failed miserably? Is it the US flags again? Plainly ridiculous.

Who is this guy? How the hell can this Michael O'Hanlon make a career in defence analysis and get published in the Washington Post when he doesn't have a clue?

Zarkawi ... terrorist try hard

2006-05-04T23:16:00.000-07:00

I love this, from the Counterterroism Blog. CENTCOM has gained excerpts from the Zarkawi tape, and it shows him as a bumbling tryhard in comfy shoes who can't actually handle the weapons. So the master terrorist is actually just a try-hard, a wannabe.

Encore! Encore!

Imagine! You become the world's second most wanted terrorist, idol of thousands of jihadi fanatics, except .... with a gun you are more dangerous to yourself than the eeevil A-Mericans.

You have to wonder. What was he actually saying during the bit on the tape where he was studing the maps with a music over? Maybe, "Ahmed, tell me again, what is thay. That one. What is that symbol meaning? A tower? Are you sure, Ahmed? ..."

Zarkawi should go the suicide belt, much more appropriate for his skill level.

Awards for Latvian solders OIF team 7

2006-04-26T09:03:00.000-07:00

From the MND(CS) homepage :

Awards for Latvian solders

On Wednesday 12th April MG Edward Gruszka, MND CS Commanding General awarded Latvian soldiers. They were awarded with Multinational Division Central – South badge, which is given to the soldier after 90 days of their service in MND CS in Iraq. Latvian soldiers are an important part of the MND CS Maneuver Group and perform excellent duty as an escort of convoys and patrols.

Another tour well under way and so far so good .... congratulations for a job well done at the sharp end.

Norman Kember says thanks! Sort of.

2006-04-17T04:21:00.000-07:00

Oh! The Christian Peacemaker Teams are offended that the British military appears to think them ungrateful for the rescue. Wherever did they get that idea? After all, didn't nonstormin Norman say thanks at least once or twice to those SAS chaps?

The interview with Norman Kember. He started out as a peacenik dodging the draft ... why is that not a surprise?

I have been a peace activist since 1950/52 when I was a conscientious objector.

Kember on the SAS:

“Well, we thanked them … I continue to thank them for what they did. They were brave. I disagree with their profession. But it’s ironic isn’t it? You go as a peace activist and then you’re rescued by the SAS, which is perhaps the most violent of all the British forces.”

Kember on his captors :

“I don’t wish them any harm. I wouldn’t like to feel that they’d been executed, or anything like that. They had humanity; they showed us humanity from time-to-time. They were misguided, because they were obviously men of violence.”

There we have it, Norman Kember, draft dodging peacenik who at heart believes the SAS and the terrorists are essentially interchangeable. At least he did say tank-you, publically .... after a mountain of criticism for his ingratitude.

But wait, wasn't Tom Fox of age for Viet-Nam??? :

Graduating from college in 1973, Fox was unwilling to serve in a combat role in Vietnam and fulfilled his military obligation by joining the U.S. Marine Band.

"During the Vietnam War, Tom figured out a way to have a career as a musician and not fight in Vietnam, which was against his convictions," said the Rev. Carol Rose, a co-director of Christian Peacemaker Teams who worked with him in Iraq.

Why am I not surprised?

Chad feat. Sudan

2006-04-13T11:23:00.000-07:00

So then, rebels have assaulted the capital of Chad, a move of some 500 miles. Rather impressive by them, less impressive was Chads security and intelligence of course. Even if the rebels have been wiped out as the Chadian government claims, the guesture is significant. Furthermore, according to the CIA factbook there are 200 ethnicities in Chad with a small muslim majority - sounds like a country rife for ethnic-religious fragmentation and strife.

Anybody up for intervention in Darfur?

Flogging Estonian soldier for drunkeness

2006-04-08T02:32:00.000-07:00

An Estonian sergeant will get a flogging in the UAE ....

The drinking in the airport is not that unusual, six months in the 'stan will make most people want a stiff drink. Of course, thats six months mostly or entirely without any drinks, so overreaction to the green dragon is no surprise either. Redeployment also tends to be tiring, too many connections, too much waiting for aircraft, after a pre-dark start from whatever base he was deployed.

All this goes strongly towards a understandable tendency for redeployment to be somewhat bleery.

The case appears more and more muddled every time news is heard of it. So is it sexual assault? Or drunkeness? Why is there talk of possible 15 year sentances, or maybe 80 lashes in lieu of three months? What is this business of procedural trangressions and blackmail. Is there any evidence that anything more happened than a tired and drunken soldier stumbled into the wrong toilet by accident? Very dodgy the whole thing.

One opinion that has a rather dark view of mentality underlying the proceedings :

What obviously happened is that he made a mistake, but most Muslims would have raped a woman asleep alone, so they assume he attempted likewise. Any other country this would have been chalked up to an inadvertent wandering of a drunk.

In light of this, it is more than a little surprising is that the Estonian government appears not to be doing its absolute utmost to defend their man .....

Of course, flogging was a traditional military punishment for drunkeness for centuries. Sometimes, I wish it still was.

Yahoo news :

A Sharjah police official was quoted as accusing the soldier of failing to respect the culture and religion of the UAE, a Muslim country.

Not respecting the culture? Here's a deal, the European Parliament should legislate this : Everybody coming to Europe MUST respect our culture. Any muslim transitting the Baltics will be required to dine on roast port with sauerkraut, washed down with about two litres of beer. But we are not barbarians : he may choose the brand of beer. Muslim women on the other hand will drink a selection of liqeuers, be forced to enjoy dancing on the table, thereafter sunning themselves on the beach wearing a string bikini until their husbands sober up enough to collect them.

CPT rescued, predictably ungratefull

2006-03-24T07:16:00.000-08:00

Well, the Christian Peacemaker Team of Tom Fox fame has been rescued. Wretchard writes it up well in The Belmont Club: The widow's mite, but I feel moved to vent my spleen at the CPT ingrates. LA Times :

a British-led military operation Thursday rescued three Westerners whose abductors had held them hostage since November,

But true to form, they were somewhat ungratefull, CNN :

Christian Peacemaker Teams posted a statement on its Web site expressing joy in the hostages' release but also criticizing the U.S.-led operation in Iraq.

"We believe that the illegal occupation of Iraq by Multinational Forces is the root cause of the insecurity which led to this kidnapping and so much pain and suffering in Iraq," the statement said. "The occupation must end."

From the BBC :

The rescue had followed intelligence obtained from a detainee, the spokesman said.

Abu Graib at work. Probably should send some hapless MP corporal to jail for beating this information out of a suspect., beace CPT says that :

“We pray that Christians throughout the world will, in the same spirit, call for justice and for respect for the human rights of the thousands of Iraqis who are being detained illegally by the U.S. and British forces occupying Iraq.

CPT also said :

"They knew that their only protection was in the power of the love of God and of their Iraqi and international co-workers."

Good that .... so is the SAS the hand of God then? The Australian on the operation :

At about 3am on Thursday the SAS commander in charge of the rescue force summoned his team at their base inside the heavily fortified Green Zone.

Defence sources told London's The Times newspaper that helicopters with reconnaissance cameras and Predator unmanned aerial vehicles were deployed. The men who spearheaded the rescue arrived in a convoy of cars disguised as local taxis and utilities.

The 25 men who burst into the two-storey building used classic hostage-rescue techniques, storming every room simultaneously to ensure no one escaped. They found the three hostages sitting bound on the floor of a ground-floor room. Their captors had fled.

No shots were fired. Less than two minutes after the rescuers entered the building, the three were on their way to freedom.

~~Fuckwits~~Holy fools. The captives are rescued by a huge multinational elite forces operation, and they can't bring themselves to say thanks. "Its the Multinational forces at fault, not the kidnappers!" Their man gets brutally offed by the islamoid kidnappers they want to help, and they are pleased that none of the kidnappers were hurt by the eeevil occupation forces. Rescuing ungratefull idiots like these must surely strain the loyalty of the troops. Not that SAS feels the need for much thanks, but one must be tempted to leave such as the CPT ~~pissants~~ peacemeakers to their grisly but well deserved fates.

Darfur : Mission Half Assed III

2006-03-17T11:27:00.000-08:00

If intervention in Darfur is a dodgy proposition just by itself, we need to factor Sudan in. As the government of Sudan has made clear, it isn't interested in hosting effective foreign forces. It is apparently more than happy to host ~~half assed~~ ineffectual foreign forces, that merely serves as cover for their nefarious activities a la Srebrenica.

Would the Sudanese government subsidise a deniable guerilla insurgency against competent peacekeepers in a limited area (Darfur)? Presumably. In any case, given the logistic constraints described previously, any peacekeeping mission would depend on Sudanese government good will to stay sustainably supplied via rail. They could cut that rail supply at any place or any time of course, via some deniable rag tag proxy group.

What would be the mission endstate? Defend the refugee camps with the ~~half assed~~ small force currently mooted (~20 000)? That can't be indefinate, so presumably there must be returns of refugees to their villages of origin then (like Bosnia or Kosovo). Of course, given Sudanese government actual ill will, any returns would have to protected, which would require the huge force as indicated (~100 000). How long to defend that? If Kosovo/Bosnia is any guide we are talking at least 10-20 YEARS while there is a generation change from the folks who participated in the conflict cycle.

The root problem is the government in Khartoum of course. Is there a solution....other than zapping it?

Could Arabic Sudan resist western invasion forces for long? Of course not. However, the resources for such an adventure would be greater than Iraq :

Sudan
Population : 40 million
Area : ~ 2 500 000 sq km (or about the same as the USA east of the Mississippi, or 2/3 of the entire EU)
Access very poor, internal rail, limited port access, little existing road network, airport, no developed countries adjacent
Number of NATO forces required to successfully occupy (base guesstimate from area and population from previous examples): 250 000 +

Sudan has the same Arab / muslim oriented population as Iraq, and has been agood host for al Quaida, so the terrorist "flypaper effect"* would be in action again. We can crush Khartoum, but presumably be left with a festering Arab/muslim insurgency in a country with more population spread over an area 5 times that of Iraq, bordering NINE countries (including hostile arabic Libya, dynamically unstable arabic Egypt, and anarchy central failed state Congo), with dozens of languages and tribes (some of which are Kababish, Ga’alin, Rubatab, Manasir, Shaiqiyah, Baggara, Beja , Nubians, Nuba, Fur, Dinka, Shilluk, Nuer, Azande, Bor, Jo Luo, Acholi and Lotuhu. There appear to be MANY more.) Can such a country work at all without a despotic central government? Would we be happy with a new mega-nightmare like the congo replacing the relatively stable (if despotic) current Sudan? Or is Sudan better off as a protectorate for 50 years until it can be tamed into a federation of some form?

Moral of the story : its not real. Intervention in Darfur may require intervention is Sudan as a whole in order to succeed, and that intervention may turn (logically but unexpectedly) into occupation and rebuilding just like Iraq did. That is a non-starter. Occupying Sudan properly is such a astoundingly large task that NATO is not capable of doing it sustainably with current standing forces! The enormous and well funded US armed forces is groaning under the strain of sustaining forces levels in Iraq - force levels less than the ones presumably required for Sudan. The people talking "intervention" should realize that means - if done seriously, and not some half-assed Somlia style venture - partial national mobilisations that would cost hundreds of billions of euros.

Hell, I personally am up for doing it seriously. Large scale drafting of European kids for a years service in Sudan would do wonders in forming a ~~callous and intrepid~~ toughened youth.

I would not be up for doing such a mission half-assed.

Darfur : Mission Half Assed II

2006-03-15T08:18:00.000-08:00

Now I've looked around and find I'm not the only one to have immediate logistical nightmares even thinking about Darfur. ZacZaca's Blog Turning to NATO for Darfur which had some great commentary :

On February 19, 2006 - 9:53pm hcberkowitz said:

Hello? General Clark? Have you forgotten the logistics courses at the Command and General Staff College?

OK. We have eight infantry battalions. Given the sparse population density outside the refugee camps, those battalions can't be foot-mobile light infantry, and will need vehicles. They won't need armored vehicle, but those trucks, all-terrain cars, etc., will need fuel and maintenance. Eight battalions alone won't be enough; there will need to be headquarters and support personnel. The soldiers need to eat, get water (in an arid area), have replacement clothing, and, if they fight, ammunition.

I haven't yet pulled out my Combat Service Support Guide, and really would prefer to get an Army friend with access to logistic planning software than do it myself by hand, but you are talking about tons of supply per day.

There are no paved roads in Darfur. It's a dry area, so that may not be as terrible in wetter areas, but heavy trucks will break up dirt roads and make them more and more difficult to pass.

One easy-to-attack rail line runs from the secure Sudanese rail junction at Babanusa to the Darfur city of Nyala. Nyala has a very limited airfield. The best airfield in Darfur is at El Fasher, linked by road to Nyala. All fuel in El Fasher needs to be flown or trucked in; aircraft flying in usually pay the weight penalty of carrying round trip fuel. El Fasher is also very limited in unloading and warehousing facilities.

The transportation routes do not yet exist to support a force of this size, if it does more than sit in garrison on short rations. While it might not have the glamour of "peacekeeping", the prerequisite to doing anything useful is going to include improving roads, securing the rail line (which has an inactive branch that goes into Chad), and making airlift more efficient.

An excellent start on the latter would be to stage supply flights not out of Lagos, Nigeria, where they have been originating, but from Khartoum International in Sudan. Khartoum has a nearby refinery, much greater traffic capacity, and road and rail routes to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Nyala airfield needs instrument landing facilities, unloading, and maintenance facilities.

If the peacekeepers use helicopters or light aircraft to spot the roving militias, the fuel and maintenance requirement for this capability goes up enormously. The militias move primarily on horses and camels. The militia most associated with atrocities is called the janjaweed, which translates to "man on a horse".

Is no one looking at Darfur on a map, and seriously considering the needed infrastructure improvements -- which would be good for Sudan in general? It may also be effective to improve road and rail transportation into Chad, where there is new oil production.

There is a legitimate humanitarian concern, but I suffer from the disadvantage of having studied Sudan in some detail. That study makes me regard the current suggestions as out of touch with reality.
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On February 20, 2006 - 9:19am hf jai said:

Excuse me? Are you saying NATO, with US participation, cannot provide logistic support to EIGHT maneuver battalions? A division minus? Complicated by a multinational composition to be sure, but with the support of American command & control and lift capabilities, I can hardly see overwhelming difficulties in such a deployment.

Yes, there's a need for logistical support planning. Yes, I'm sure there will be infrastructure building to be done. I don't see those as show-stoppers.

Perhaps the lesson you've missed in your Command & General Staff course is the need to provide sufficient force to accomplish the mission and provide force protection. And if there's any lesson to be taken from the mess in Iraq, aside from the strategic mistake of invading in the first place, it is the folly of undertaking military operations on the cheap. They appear on track to make the same mistake in Darfur.

Seems to me that General Clark has sketched out a thumbnail of what's needed operationally. The NATO planning staff, aided by the Pentagon, is fully capable of determining the support requirements and delivering a sustainable combat force.
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On February 20, 2006 - 10:07am hcberkowitz said:

Given the terrain and infrastructure, that is exactly what I am saying, until a good deal of civil engineering -- which may take force protection -- takes place. For all the problems in Iraq, it had a fairly decent road network, substantial airports that could be returned to service, and, again needing overhaul, at least one port connected to the road network. Not all the roads in Iraq are the nice freeways with US-looking green-and-white signs, which you might find on around Baghdad or on the Basra-Kuwait road.

There is not one paved road in Darfur. There is one airport that can handle roughly two C-130 loads at once, has no particular refueling or maintenance capability, or more than minimal unloading and warehousing space that can tranfer to trucks. Incidentally, those same unloading, warehousing, and distribution problems were the limiting factor in the immediate airlift into the area were the limiting factor in Hurricane Katrina relief -- and that was a matter of having existing facilities needing repair. Assumptions were made about Mogadishu Airport being adequate for Somalian relief, until the runways started collapsing under the wheels of heavy transports.

There is a reason that the US Air Force has a whole base building system based around "Red Horse" engineering squadrons, which still usually need pathfinders and ground security forces, and are limited in capability until they can link up with heavy ground or sea transport. The British have equivalent organizations.

Now, if someone were to offer a proposal to bring motorized infantry into the eastern and western areas of Darfur, protecting road construction and providing security to rail repair, I'd see some reasonability -- as long as those proposals had a plausible timetable and budget. It's entirely likely that there may need to be as many or more troops in what the US Army now calls Maneuver Enhancement Brigades (engineers, military police, base defense, permanent communications) as in Maneuver Brigades of infantry or combined arms. I'm assuming that Chad will cooperate in being a source of petroleum, oil, and lubricants from the west, just as there will need to be a POL flow by rail from Khartoum in the east to Babanusa, and then to Nyala by protected rail, or by truck convoy.

Perhaps you didn't understand the lesson on military operations on the cheap. Without an adequate supply line, those maneuver battalions won't be able to maneuver very much. Supply restrictions also contribute to refugee suffering, as the World Food Programme tries to get supplies into Darfur from Uganda, while the Sudanese government could be doing a lot more.

Putting maneuver battalions into Darfur, without adequate combat service support, is exactly what you describe as trying to undertake military operations on the cheap. Going back somewhat, the US had no real capability to bring more than a brigade force of Marines into Viet Nam until there were upgraded port facilities in Saigon, and much more infrastructure at both logistic centers like Cam Ranh Bay and in interior improvements.

8 maneuver battalions? For an area larger than Iraq I was thinking of more like 40-50. Of course, but I had forgotten to factor one thing in : the ethnic cleansing is already fait accompli(see the chart opening), with 2.5 million already cleansed (some killed and the rest mostly in ~~concentration~~ refugee camps). If the intent is only to defend existing camps than 8 battalions may be enough, and they would be considerably more static (= less log overhead). Of course, that would also turn those refugee camps into permanent conclagers, to the horror of the world and inhabitants, but in line with the wishes of the Sudanese government. The Sudanese government will of course agree to ghettoising Darfur, but will presumably oppose a stronger force that could roll back the cleansing.

Of course, 8 maneuver battalions is still most of a 20000 man division - the same as pacified Kosovo - and still verging on logistically unsustainable as per the quoted comments. (I'll have to do some reading for a tonnage per day guesstimate, but it is HUGE.)

One rail line, no roads, two airfields (that is airfields and not airports). The rail line from Chad is the only option, since running a single rail line from central Sudan against a uncooperative or hostile Sudanese government is a non-starter. But that line is not running, nor presumably does Chad have much support to offer from the desolate Sudan border region. Furthermore, access to Chad is even worse than to Sudan.

Of course, the trouble in Darfur started when two indigenous rebel groups attacked the government, and not the other way around. However, unfettered by western liberal values, the Sudanese government has carried out a ~~good old fashioned~~ evil counter-insurgency operation by ~~draining the swamp~~ ethnically cleansing the entire supporting population base for the rebels. Even more ~~clever~~ evil yet, they have delegated the ethnic cleansing to deniable local rag tag militias, and avoided using their regular army to do too much dirty work.

Darfur : Mission Half Assed

2006-03-14T01:14:00.000-08:00

The UN desperately wants to send troops to Darfur. Ok, lets make the debatable assumption thats a good idea. But lets just look over the facts regarding implementation.

A quick review a few features of countries recently in which western forces have helped establish and keep the peace (in reality : benign occupations)

Iraq :
Population ~ 25million (Concentrated in narrow strip along the two rivers)
Area ~438 000 sq km, desert and two rivers
Access excellent via Kuwait (excellent existing ports and staging infrastructure), major airport Baghdad, NATO neighbor Turkey, good existing road infrastrucutre with major highways
Number of NATO forces to occupy : ~ 150 000+

Kosovo :
Population ~ 2,5 million (concentrated in central large valley)
Area ~10 000 sq km, valley surrounded by mountains
Access limited but via FYROM, close to NATO countries Greece (ports), Italy (air), major airport Pristina, good existing road infrastructure
Number of NATO forces to occupy : ~40 000

Bosnia :
Population : ~ 4,5 million (concentrated in valleys)
Area : ~50 000 sq km, mountainous as hell
Access limited, but next to developed Croatia (ports Split, airport, close overland access from NATO member Hungary, railheads), major airport Sarajevo, poor existing transport infrastructure (mainly a bridge problem)
Number of NATO forces to occupy : ~ 60 000

Darfur
Population : ~ 6 million (all over the shop)
Area : ~ 500 000 sq km, desert and savannah
Access hopeless, no rail, no port access, little existing road network, no airhead, no friendly/developed countries adjacent
Number of NATO forces required to successfully occupy (base guesstimate from area and population from previous examples): 80 000 - 100 000?

The size of force to successfully enforce peace in Darfur is large, as the area is huge but it is without infrastructure. The lack of roads demands many off terrain vehicles (jeeps and multi-wheeled APCs) and helicopters if the force is to be mobile at all. Worse, it is far, far from anywhere that can provide support for even minor but important stuff like bottled water or food or fuel, and there is no port of debarkation to be seen. A local APOD could be developed from near zero, but there is no SPOD, and will be none ... ever. Neither is there a railhead. Note that the baselines are western (NATO or near equivalent) forces - I have no belief in African peacekeepers doing much other than spreading AIDS.

Moral of the story : it is not going to happen.

Even if the forces are available (and they are not), the logistical challenge of maintaining forces without rail or sea access, without adjacent host nation services, in an area without infrastructure worth a damn, is just too daunting for words.

The UN can send some forces, but it is unlikely they will be of sufficient size, quality (African) or leadership (UN) to fix anything that isn't already fixed locally.

And so Sun Tzu might say : So much for peace enforcement in Darfur.

2006-03-09T09:50:00.000-08:00

Vaclav Klaus has spoken. From the Brussels Journal :

Mr Klaus stressed that the nation-state “is an unsubstitutable guarantor of democracy (opposite to all kinds of ‘Reichs,’ empires and conglomerates of states).”
We should make our society free, democratic and prosperous. It will not be achieved by democratic deficit, by supranationalism, by etatism, by an increase in legislating, monitoring, and regulating us.

We need a political system which must not be destroyed by a postmodern interpretation of human rights (with its emphasis on positive rights, with its dominance of group rights and entitlements over individual rights and responsibilities and with its denationalization of citizenship), by weakening of democratic institutions which have irreplaceable roots exclusively on the territory of the states, by the ‘multiculturally’ brought about loss of a needed coherence inside countries, and by the continental-wide rent-seeking of various NGOs.

[...] We need a system of ideas which must be based on freedom, personal responsibility, individualism, natural caring for others and a genuinely moral conduct of life.

Absolutely. Compare the post-communist statesmen of Eastern Europe (Czech republic, Latvia, Estonia, Poland) to the cringe inducing Chirac, Blair, Shroeder or Berlusconi. Sometimes, Rumsfeld's famous Old Europe crack has more substance than given credit for.

Cultural marxism, star power and narcissism

2006-03-06T09:59:00.000-08:00

Kim du Toit has made a good point about the modern status of actors :

From the Middle Ages right up until the 20th century, actors were regarded as scum by the general populace. An “actress” was a synonym for “prostitute” because, then as now, so many of them were. And since then both actors and actresses have seldom failed to live up to their dreary reputations, having the morals of stoats and the sexual proclivities likewise.

It’s a besetting fault of ours, thinking that because people have a skill in one arena (sport, acting, whatever) that we should give them a respectful hearing when they utter some vacuous statement, simply because they’re wearing a Super Bowl ring or won the Academy Award ten years ago. But it doesn’t look like this nonsense is going to end very soon, and more’s the pity.

Who played Hamlet in the opening performance of "Hamlet" by Sheakespeare? The correct answer is "who cares?". The genius was in the timeless play, not the prancing fool performing.

Today? The unfortunate side effect of the modern media (and particularly television) is that is has raised actors to be "stars". The scripts of Hollywood movies typically suck, and how many script writers are known to the general public? Cinematographers? Editors? Nope, its the actors that get the billing, and the producers that make a killing.

The deleterious effetcs of the modern media (TV particularly) in producing "stars" is ruinous. Sports stars, rock stars, movie stars. The growth of the modern media in the US, unfortunately coinciding with the importation of cultural marxism theory, has gut-shot western culture by producing a generation more influenced by vacuous stars than by the classics, philosophers and leaders that produced that civilization. And as Kim notes, actors are basically scum.

The condition of stars in one word ? How about narcissism?

Shinkwrapped and has a fascinating series on the disease of narcissism in western society, and its links to political correctness, as has Dr Sanity in NARCISSISM AND SOCIETY.

The media makes stars of actors and musicians, giving them far far far more influence and exposure than their limited intellects and talents deserve. These are often narcissists who are natural suckers for political correctness / cultural marxism. The media relentlessly pumps the effeminate attitudes of morons into western society, (particularly children!). The emasculated TV generation in the West now elects actors instead of leaders, and is now in real danger of dissapearing up its own ego.

YAAFM 12

2006-03-04T02:04:00.000-08:00

I saw this on No Pasaran and couldn't stop laughing. Offensive as hell, but manages to say some of the things we think but only dare say when smashed. Enjoy.

Latvia supports Denmark and Freedom - PM

2006-02-10T08:40:00.000-08:00

Latvian PM Kalvītis has stated in an interview on state radio that :

We are in solidarity with Denmark and the other countries of Europe, because Europe will not step back from freedom of expression and the press, regardless of the fact that other countries have expressed condemnation

Yehaa. Only took several weeks to take a moral stand, and a mere three days after our peacekeepers were besieged in Maymana. [sarcasm] My heart runs over at the bravery of the government [/sarcasm]. The Latvian newspapers are yet to run the offending cartoons (as opposed to Respublika in Lithuania, which has done so).

PRT Maymana

2006-02-07T11:55:00.000-08:00

Of course the PRT that operates from Maymana has also Finns, Brits and Latvians. There is also some kind of Swedish prescence. Most of the MSM (hack, spit) is running stories along the lines of :

About 250 protesters armed with assault rifles and grenades attacked the NATO base in the northwestern town of Maymana, burning an armored vehicle, a U.N. car and guard posts, said a Maymana Hospital doctor.

Some in the crowd fired light weapons and threw stones and hand grenades, and the Norwegian troops responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and warning shots....

"Protestors" .... as if they were students at campus rally or pensioners protesting heating prices. OK, whatever. Some protests are more violent than others. But some fucking Canadian newspaper is covering the same story with the headline "Norwegian troops fire on Afghan cartoon protesters". Thats the sort of cheap and misleading sensationalist journalism we might expect from less than impartial muslim countries ..... but from Canada?

Islamic madness as an Iranian puppet

2006-02-07T07:22:00.000-08:00

Its getting sillier and sillier - attack on the Danish battalion in Iraq, attacks on Danish embassies in Syria, Lebanon, Indonesia and Iran and now a crowd has attempted to storm the base for the Norwegian led Provincial Reconstruction Team in Maymana, Afghanistan. Considering that the PRT are very much in civil help mode, and only benefit local communities, that is a rather worrying incident.

I wonder how anyone can sanction Iran without causing a total conflagration, let alone attack (as William Lind is predicting)? Cui bono - is this Iran fomenting a brushfire, making for a smokescreen that will allow them to consumate their nuke program without intervention?

Arab-Persian relations have been iffy at times. How hard is it to see Iranian hands in at least the troubles in Afghanistan (teh trouble was at Maymana is in the north-west and NOT Kabul or the usually volatile pashtun South) and southern Iraq (shiitie, where the hand of Iran is well noted), or the knwon Iranian catpaws in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Palestine (Hamas and Islamic Jihad). The current big Islamic ummah convention of muslim love and togetherness and hating the west would play directly in their hands come action against their nuclear facilities.

And if we are nervous, how is Israel? Rampaging muslims and nuclear Iran. A blog called The Officers' Club even provides interesting Tom Clancy-esque guesses as to the directions an Israeli intervention may take in Meanwhile Back in Iran . Personally it sounds a little far-fetched, the straight diplomatic nudge and wink and blinking duirng overflights is much much more likely.

And where is Al-Qaida? William Lind also warns that a big attack may be in the offing after Osama's peace offer.

May you live in interesting times. 2006 is getting rather interesting.

Islam and nazism

2006-02-05T12:25:00.000-08:00

I can't believe the number of nazi - sypathetic references from the Islamists. Certain pro-Israeli articles claim the Islamists are direct descendents of the nazis (based on rather tenous links), while some Islamists appear to express pro-nazi sypathies on the strength of the enemy-of-my-enemy. Do they really understand much of any history?

If they ever really really hurt Europe (the nightmare scenario WMD attack, and economic chaos, mass uprisings), soft and fuzzy feel-good be-good euro policies will evaporate. It won't be openly revisionist, not sigrunen or hakenkreutz ressurected, nor bad mustaches nor skinheads (oooh white supremisists - the supreme liberal/marxist bugbear) - it would be something entirely new. New style then, but same old substance.

From the Kaiser to Kristalnacht took less than 20 years.The Islamists can either only lose now, but if they win now .... then they will bring the spirit of him back?

Dr. Michael Scheuer - Missing Zawahiri

2006-02-05T05:13:00.000-08:00

Dr. Michael Scheuer - the CIA guy who wrote "Imperial Hubris" - has written a fine tract on the US should be playing realpolitik Missing Zawahiri - A Portent of America’s Defeat, in the US Cavalry site "On Point" :

In a rational, historically aware country, U.S. leaders would have told Americans that the attack on Zawahiri was facilitated by U.S. intelligence officers and Special Forces who risked their lives to gather intelligence that seemed to fix Zawahiri in a specific place at a specific time. Because Washington’s most important duty is to protect Americans, they would have said, we acted on the best information available and, so to speak, let 'er rip. Unfortunately, we missed Zawahiri, but we killed four of his fighters and will keep trying to get him and bin Laden. As for the dead Pakistanis, they are foreigners not Americans and we have no responsibility to protect them. And, in any event, they were about to serve up sautéed goat steaks and curry to one of America’s most dangerous enemies. The lesson all Pakistanis should take from the incident is that we are not concerned with the lives of Zawahiri’s abettors, that they were lucky the village was not hit by B-52s, and that next time they may not be so fortunate.

Of course the indiscriminate use of airpower in counterinsurgency inevitably backfires, but straight hard talk like suggested would be better than the squirming denials and excuses. But they can't, becuase that might be insensitive.

Support Denmark

2006-02-01T23:48:00.000-08:00

Blogs, politics and feedbacks in OODA loops II

2006-01-29T00:28:00.000-08:00

US politics from the cheap seats and Daily Pundit again.

US domestic politics - interesting how? Interesting as the avangard case of internet influence, and of course the US as the worlds only superpower, whose globe shaping foreign policy (implicit, as well as explicit - it can be observed in opposition sometimes) is the product of internal politics meaningless elsewhere. 5% of voters in Florida swing votes because of local issues (crime? social security? policy towards Haiti? whatever!), and we get to occupy Iraq, or not. US domestic politics is the tail that wags the dog as far as 200 other countries are concerned, including Latvia. So - interesting.

James Lileks in Jewish World Review writes

But the pestilential keyboard pounders had best realize they're just screaming to the choir. Persuading the middle means acknowledging that the opposition is not composed of subhuman Moorlocks who hope global warming drowns coastal-dwelling gay stem-cell researchers. People on the right may be wrong, but it's quite possible they don't actually want a fascistic corporate state where the elite tour the country in giant hovercraft, vaporizing Wal-Mart labor organizers with microwave rays.

humorous, but Daily Pundit responds with Middle Me This....

So tell me again: What is so admirable about this middle, and why should people who actually know what they are talking about, are not afraid to form, hold, and express opinions, are willing to act on them and who, in general, take the time and make the effort to become what the Founders would have considered good citizens take a back seat to the Brobdignagian mob of mopes, dopes, goofuses, doofuses, and rubes that make up "the middle?"

Why is smearing "Duh, I dunno" in crayon across your forehead considered a badge of honor?

So not only are the Left insane, but swing voters are a pack of losers. There is no point preaching to the unconverted, because they are obviously clueless (since they have not converted already). Heaven knows where that leaves actuallly considering opposing arguments based on their merit, or of objective viewpoints. So, a blogger in danger of dissapearing up his own OODA loop. But how important are bloggers?

The Washingtom Post writes Blogs Attack From Left as Democrats Reach for Center. Not immensely coherent, but the radicalising influence of the left wing blogs is laid out. Is this part of a wider trend, where the internet allow the radicals to direct party events (as opposed to the old days they were merely embarrassing minor speakers at rallies)? Couple this to the selective input potential of blogs to close political wing OODA loops and thereby drive those same wings into extremism.

If the democratic system works, extreme closed parties should be rejected by voters and collapse electorally. If not we get ... democratically elected governments with radical policies and closed OODA loops. Examples : Nazi Germany, Milosevic Serbia, Mugabe Zimbabwe and now Hamas Palestine.

Operation Iraqi Freedom team VI awards

2006-01-27T12:09:00.000-08:00

The fine lads of 1st Company /2nd Infantry Battalion received their campaign medals today from the defence ministress. Bravo, well earned. Sadly, the sort of event that Latvian MSM completely ignores as a matter of routine.

Latvian muslim nazis on LGF ....

2006-01-26T10:38:00.000-08:00

An unrelated google search made looking into the glorious history of Latvian peacekeeping in former Yugoslavia turned up a most unexpected find. This old (2003) post made on Little Green Footballs called Arab Nazism: Then and Now, which links to an frontpagemag article of the same name which states :

The SS indoctrinated these Muslim fighters, variously called Trawniki men, Hilfswillige, Hiwis, or Askaris, at training camps or "Ausbildungslager" in towns such as Trawniki, Poland. The Askaris, who generally hailed from the Ukraine and the Baltic states....

Ah, how could we miss that the Trawnikis and Hiwis of WWII were mainly Latvian and Ukrainian muslims! Utterly laughable to anyone with even a passing clue of course (could the article be a parody???? LGF presents it straight faced)

But the LGF comments bear reading as well. The horror, the horror. Crass and aggressive ignorance at its finest. Baltics and Balkans, Lithuanians or Bosniacs whats the difference anyway? :D.

Just a flesh wound.....

2006-01-24T12:21:00.000-08:00

The milnet version

A Latvian soldier and Iraqi civilians were injured in Iraq in separate incidents and Iraqi security forces found a bomb in Fallujah, U.S. military officials reported.

The Latvian guard was injured by small-arms fire today in al Kut when unidentified gunmen fired at an observation post in the Multinational Division Central South area of responsibility. The guards returned fire.

The wounded soldier was transported to a military medical facility, where his condition is stable.

Stable? Just a flesh wound to the upper arm, a clean puncture apparently.

Interesting trivia : he is the first Latvian soldier to be injured by actual gunshot during 10 years of peace support operations. There have been many various injuries, several much more serious, but this is the first actual operational bullet wound.

Media watch : for reasons I do not understand, this relatively trivial incident has been widely mentioned in the international news, and overreported in the Latvian news. Maybe it was a slow day for bad news from the front (MSM! hack! spit!), but then again MoD also made an overly large song and dance of the whole business to begin with.

Blogging and incestuous feedback in OODA loops

2006-01-21T04:34:00.000-08:00

Daily Pundit has an interesting bit on blogs and polarization following on from BELTWAY BLOGROLL - The Rise Of Blogs. Daily pundit fastens onto a most interesting statement

Blogs, she added, tend to attract like-minded people -- and ones who are "slightly more ideologically extreme than the general population." The end result: "The Internet is exacerbating political polarization."

While Daily Pundit sees this polarization as true, but the reation as (well) reactionary, and concludes

Was this polarization a bad thing? I think not. Of course, I'm considered something of a polarizing force myself. I don't mind. In fact, I'm proud of it.

It has a different perspective from the OODA loop angle. If blogs allow people to selectively filter the news according to the own personal prejudices, and the virtual nature of the internet insulates those same indivisuals from personal reality checks, isn't it inevitable they will get inside their own OODA loops by incestuos amplification misdirecting orientation?

The existence of Incestuous Amplification shapes one's Orientation by naturally distorting the Observations feeding that Orientation. (The observer sees what he wants to see rather than what is.) When this happens, the Decisions and Actions flowing from that Orientation become progressively disconnected from reality. This process pumps dysfunctional behavior into the OODA loop which then becomes magnified as the effects of the disconnected actions are fed back into the Incestuously Amplified Orientation. As any student of nonlinear dynamics or evolution knows, this kind of positive feedback loop can produce confusion and disorder and ultimately degenerate into chaos or extinction, if the organism becomes disconnected from its environment. Any hint of Incestuous Amplification is therefore a bright red flag." - The View From Mount Olympus Seen from the Cheap Seats

Applied to politics via selective blog reading this would of course inevitably lead to polarization, and more extreme responses and irrational behaviour as opposed to reasoned debate. Regularly reading US liberal vs conservative blogs, I am always struck by the conviction of both sides that the other are not merely wrong in their beliefs, but actually insane. Come to think of it the Gore/Bush political cirus was most of the way there already. Its reminiscent of Israel-Palestine politics, where both accuse CNN of being stooges for the other side. It suggest that at least part of the divided US political camps are already well inside their own OODA loops. So it IS already happening ... one wonders where this increased polarization will lead. It suggests collapse of one or the other political party (if the democratic system works properly), but what if the symptoms are more widespread in the population than just the hard core political activists?

The new electronic media allows fragmentation of popular belief as opposed to the norming effects of the traditional media (and moreso outside the US where the state media is important). More traditionally the boundaries between communities and seperate information spaces have been made by language, geography and religion, but in the virtual world people can easily compartment themselves. Will such a e-seperation leak into the real world, is blogging part of a slippery slide to balkanization?

I'd much rather be watching this fascinating process (both unprecedented and unpredicted, and unpredictable) unfold in a country that wasn't so damn important.

Iraq as tar-baby

2006-01-07T05:23:00.000-08:00

Stars and Stripes has published a letter expressing a most excellent grunt's eye appreciation of the situation (noticed first on the HNN blog).

The BLUF in Iraq

The bottom line up front (BLUF) is this: If the United States leaves Iraq before the job is at least 90 percent done, it would be catastrophic on a biblical scale (“War based on a lie,” letter, Nov. 28). First, you would have civil war and ethnic strife. Then would come the genocide — if I offended anyone, I apologize; I meant “ethnic cleansing.” After all that, another Taliban-style regime would take hold. Then another “coalition of the willing” would have to be assembled and we would be right back in Iraq.

Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture. What would have happened if the U.S. had prematurely come home during World War II? This is no easy task. It takes time to force change on people.

Personally, I hate this country. I hated it the first time I was here. I will despise it and most of its ungrateful people until the day I die. Regardless of the reason we are here — weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussein’s alleged ties to al-Qaida, or whatever — the BLUF is that we are here and have a job to do.

Staff Sgt. David J. Wallach
Forward Operating Base Summerall, Iraq

Some awake but others still sleep

2006-01-06T10:51:00.000-08:00

The Latvian print media has awoken and noticed the OIF rotation (barely) - a day after the local Russian and Chinese medias.

Speaking of awaking, Military.com has still not published any of Lind's commentaries since On War #139 - C'est la Guerre. Guess it was too hot for them, even a milporn site like military.com has its political correctness tolerance limit.* Their loss.

*Of course the U.S. Marine Corp’s Liman von Sanders failing to heap adulation on the US military at every opportunity may have contributed.

Latvia rotates infantry company in Iraq

2006-01-04T09:05:00.000-08:00

The Latvian infantry company has successfully finished its tour in Iraq with the Polish (in Al-Hillah with the Polish Multinational Division Central-South). Many plaudits and no casualties, despite working outside the wire daily.

One of the local Russian language newspapers of course made it front page news, complete with the dodgy headline "Raid on Iraq" and a rather out of date picture of agressive looking Latvian soldiers waving M-16s. While actual Latvian news sources have virtually ignored this event, it was picked up by a Chinese news outlet. Strange, no?

Another righteous (non)bust

2005-11-26T11:42:00.000-08:00

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/26/D8E46S1O0.html

Two junior officer face reprimands for burning bodies of killed Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.

Note that militarily unjustified burning of bodies is a contravention of the Geneva convention, and that a reprimand is something you collect, for instance, turning up to work late.

BUSTED. PUBLICLY. But not really. The woes of political corectness. The need to be seen taking action without actually taking action. Piss-weak really, the generals should have stood up and said "So what?".

Burning muslim bodies is a trifle. We should be feeding every dead mujahideen to the pigs.

Zarqawi : His ass is grass?

2005-11-20T11:38:00.000-08:00

Jerusalem post reports that Zarqawi has been killed

The Elaph Arab media website reported on Sunday that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of the al-Qaida in Iraq terror group, may have been killed in Iraq on Sunday afternoon when eight terrorists blew themselves up in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

The unconfirmed report claimed that the explosions occurred while coalition forces surrounded the house in which al-Zarqawi was hiding. American and Iraqi forces are looking into the report.

We can only hope so, and *unchristian lack of charity* hope it hurt. Of course, dismemberment by explosives is far too easy, Zarqawi deserved to be fed to the pigs.

Update : doubts are expressed (charred corpses and DNA tests?), but he has yet to appear alive either. Speculation that his own tribe may have informed on him after the Jordan wedding bombing. Interesting. $10 says that he's still alive (such a bet makes for a win/win situation :D )

Generation Gap

2005-11-19T02:42:00.000-08:00

Blog Them Out of the Stone Age carries a series more than a little derisive of William Lind's 4th generation warfare theories.

In purely academic terms, Fourth Generation Warfare is laughable. The master metaphor--"generations"--is incoherent, since it implies that one form of war eventually generates the next. In the sense of operational or tactical response this might be correct, but as proponents of 4GW themselves point out, the factors that transform war invariably come from outside; e.g., political, technological, and cultural change. Even if you jettison "generation" for "age," "era," or "phase," the taxonomy of the earlier history of warfare is crude. Take my word for it, or read the articles for yourself.

In lieu of better terms I will stay with Lind's terminology (i.e. 3rd generation warfare = 3GW etc).

The term generation is misleading*, since generation implies both descent and progress from previous generations. 3GW is not descended from 2GW, 2GW and 3GW arose at the same time from 1GW during WWI, and 3GW is an alternative not a development or improvement.

2GW is an outgrowth of 1GW in its essential human aspects - it is still the the culture of order. 2GW is the older culture of order adapted to the industrial age. The culture of order was however present earlier, much earlier, epitomized by the Roman legions.

Lind has not written of the other* - let us call it the 0 generation warfare (0GW). This then, the prime demographic of warfare for millennia, where individual honor, chivalry, bravery are more important than discipline or even collective victory. It is essentially chaotic, direction being imposed by vague common purpose or value (crusades, chivalrous codes) or individual loyalties (to ruler, clan, tribe).

4GW is not an outgrowth of 1GW/2GW, or 3GW. It appears to be good old 0GW, loose direction (Islam! .... but which Islam?), fractured (many groups) with clan / tribal / sect / splintergroups abounding , featuring individual heroics (martyrs).

0GW, the basic chaotic condition of human warfare, has throughout history been crushed by entities with unified purposes (primarily imposed by despots, less often but more importantly by shared values - like the spread of Islam). Tribes and sects are isolated, split, finally destroyed or suppressed. The key word is isolated.

4GW is 0GW with a twist, the ability for essentially laughable non-state forces to coordinate, to develop consensus, to share experience. Would the Roman empire have lasted long if the Barbarian margins were linked by the www? Would the European colonial powers have carved up Africa or the Americas with such ease? But ... the warfare culture underlying has not changed. 4GW is the 0GW mindset with modern tools, the same relation as 2GW to 1GW. Divide and conquer becomes difficult when division is nigh impossible.

There needs to be new terminology developed to describe 4GW. Lind himself refers to the cultures of 2GW, 3GW etc, and this is the most important point. How about removing "Generation", the simplest concept being "Culture"?

* Or On War #53 - Fifth Generation Warfare?

One reason for the confusion may be a misapprehension of what “generation” means. In the context of the Four Generations of Modern War, “generation” is shorthand for a dialectically qualitative shift. As the originator of the framework, I adopted the word “generation” because I was speaking to and writing for Marines, and “dialectically qualitative shift” has more syllables than the Marine mind can readily grasp (think of the Emperor Joseph II’s response when he first heard Mozart’s music: “Too many notes.”). Most Marines vaguely remember that Hegel pitched for the Yankees in the late 1940’s.

**Actually he did just that in On War # 76 - 4GW In The Sudan

2005-11-18T02:29:00.000-08:00

Eternal peace is a dream --and not even a beautiful one. War is part of God's world-order. Within it unfold the noblest virtues of men, courage and renunciation, loyalty to duty and readiness for sacrifice--at the hazzard of one's life. Without war the world would sink into a swamp of materialism.

Helmuth von Moltke the Elder,
"On the Nature of War",
December 11, 1880

Still missing

2005-11-17T07:20:00.000-08:00

On war #139 finally appears on SFTT. Military.com appears not to be interested .... and the article is virtually uncommented by the wider world, in direct contrast to the reception of commet #138 (concerning exit strategies for iraq)

Lind's On War #139 - Missing in Action?

2005-11-14T08:42:00.001-08:00

William Lind's latest comment On War #139 - C'est la Guerre has yet to appear in any of the usual pages - neither Military.com or DefenceWatch have chosen to post it as of yet. Lind's opinions are seldom less than controversial, and in the past even his less relevant musings have been published without delay.

At a guess it's simply too controversial for them, even Defence and the National Interest put a hand-wringing, cringing disclaimer in front of this one.

Now, although Lind sometimes goes off half-cocked, on the balance his predictive power is second-to-none. Some of his "On War" columns on Iraq were little short of prescient at a time when he was one of the very few to sound serious warnings, long before the events occurred.

Furthermore, the column in question is not that controversial, or maybe should not be controversial, the observation that France appears to be in the opening statges of 4th generation warfare, and that France is worth saving, and that France should fight should be no-brainers.

And yet this comment, of all Linds many controversial opinions, is the one they choose NOT to publish. Not good, not good at all.

Parallels with Serbia

2005-11-12T23:45:00.000-08:00

It strikes me that France is now in a parallel position to that which Serbia was a decade ago with Kosovo. A muslim minority, breeding quietly but exponentially (and we are talking a terrifying average of 6-8 children / family in the 80's), became a majority. The new majority rose up and demanded power. The Serb government responded by driving the new majority out, and restoring the historical status quo (Kosovo as a Serb province with an Albanian minority).

We (the west, led by Pres Clinton and the US) responded by attacking, then invading Serbia in order to enforce the rights of the new majority.

Fascinating. If France "goes bad" and begins repressing muslim citizens, how are the rest of the west going to respond?